Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
Research news | 2022-11-25
Successes and shortfalls: reflections on COP27
In the wake of COP27, we gather reflections from centre staff who were involved on the ground.
Research news | 2022-11-25
Access to greenery and water goes hand in hand with human wellbeing during the pandemic
Green wedges and large nature areas are especially important for the young, elderly and unemployed, a new comparative study finds.
Research news | 2022-11-22
Fair access to water is a subjective issue in post-drought Cape Town
Who should pay for and benefit from water services? It depends on who you ask, finds a study that revisited Cape Town after its 2015-2018 water crisis
General news | 2022-11-15
Centre researchers listed among the world's most influential scientists
Carl Folke, Johan Rockström, Thomas Elmqvist, Per Olsson, Max Troell and Jonathan Donges ranked as some of the globally most cited researchers
Research news | 2022-11-14
In data scarce regions, fieldwork and historical images help researchers fill in the gaps
Researchers combined current data with historical images and inputs from previous studies to estimate how ecosystem services have changed over time in northern Burkina Faso
Research news | 2022-11-10
Fair global redistribution of resources is key for planetary stability
Redistributing resources and transforming society are necessary to ensure universal access to basic needs while staying within Earth’s limits