Publications

Clements, H.S., Biggs, R., De Vos, A., Do Linh San, E., Hempson, G.P., Linden, B., Maritz, B., Monadjem, A., Reynolds, C., Siebert, F., Stevens, N., Child, M., Di Minin, E., Esler, K.J., Hamann, M., Loft, T., Reyers, B., Selomane, O., Singh, G., Skowno, A.L.. 2026. A place-based assessment of biodiversity intactness in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09781-7

Maintaining biodiversity is central to the sustainable development agenda 1 . However, a lack of context-specific biodiversity information at policy-relevant scales has posed major limitations to decision-makers 2 , 3 . To address this challenge, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the biodiversity intactness of sub-Saharan Africa 4 using place-based knowledge of 200 African biodiversity experts 5 . We estimat...

Nico Wunderling, Boris Sakschewski, Johan Rockström, Bernardo M. Flores, Marina Hirota, Arie Staal. 2026. Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10456-0

Humanity is putting unprecedented pressures on the Amazon forest system through global warming and land use changes 1 , 2 . As the Amazon forest may undergo self-reinforcing transitions, these pressures could lead to system-wide changes across major parts of Amazonian ecosystems 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 . Here we apply a dynamical systems model to assess the local and far-reaching cascading transition risks towards degraded ecosy...

Maria Tengö, Isabel Díaz‐Reviriego, Álvaro Fernández‐Llamazares, Pernilla Malmer, Wilfredo V. Alangui, Puaʻala Pascua, Prasert Trakansuphakon, Rosemary Hill. 2026. Unpacking the task of synthesis when weaving knowledge systems for biodiversity assessments. People and Nature. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.70343

  The pivot towards evidence-based conservation since 2000 has inspired global environmental assessments to gather evidence across multiple knowledge systems, including through co-production with Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Knowledge co-production is highlighted as a strategy for transformative change towards a just future that conserves nature. The multiple evidence base (MEB) approach, one method for co-produc...

C. Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Steven Lade, Aryanie Amellina, Nitin Chaudhary, Beatrice Crona, Ingo Fetzer, Tanya Fiedler, Dario Marone, Giorgio Parlato, Juan Rocha, Lan Wang Erlandsson, Hannah Zoller. 2026. An updated Earth System Impact metric for bridging sub-global pressures and planetary boundaries. EGU General Assembly 2026. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4590

The planetary boundaries (PBs) represent key Earth system processes and their safe limits to maintain planetary resilience and stability. The 2023 assessment reflects that the Earth has transgressed six of nine boundaries while the 2025 Planetary Health Check indicates that a seventh has been breached. Given that human pressures are driving these transgressions, guidance is needed for translating planetary-scale limits into de...

André Pinto da Silva, Maria Inês Silva, Jorinde-Marie Rieger, Stefan Fallert, Juan Rocha. 2026. Biodiversity future in critical earth system forests under a green growth socio-economic pathway. World Biodiversity Forum. https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-399

Boreal and tropical forests underpin a wide range of critical Earth system functions, including long-term carbon storage, regional and global climate regulation, hydrological stability, and the maintenance of habitat for countless species. Because these ecosystems contribute so fundamentally to planetary resilience, their preservation is essential for maintaining a safe operating space for humanity in the face of accelerating ...

Amadou Hamath Diallo, Hanna Sinare, Claire Stragier, Deborah Goffner. 2026. Rethinking development: an SDG17-driven research-action approach in the Senegalese drylands. Sustainability Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-025-01794-5

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity. It defines 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are integrated and indivisible. While the goals are set at the global scale, the necessary actions to achieve them are implemented at more local scales and must be aligned with each country’s national laws and regulatory frameworks. In order to reach the SDGs by 2030 there i...

van Velden, J.L., Magadzire, N., Malherbe, W., Ojino, J.A., Bour, H., Mayer, K.K., Karonga, S.R., Tcheton, S., Kabisa, M., Pereira, L.M., Biggs, R.. 2026. Seeding equity in African food systems: how can marginal, bottom-up initiatives promote transformations to more equitable and sustainable futures?. Ecology and Society. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-16870-310102

The multiple crises of the Anthropocene require deep transformations to achieve more sustainable, and equitable, social-ecological futures. Consequently, there is growing interest in marginal, experimental, or bottom-up initiatives that may provide alternative ideas and practices that challenge existing structures and contribute toward creating transformative change. Here, we explore how innovative sustainability-oriented init...

Bennett, E.M., Reid, W., Carpenter, S., Dietz, T., Peterson, G., Ash, N., Beard, T.D., Beck, S., Biggs, R., Castree, N., Ehrmann, J., Forsyth, T., Garcia, K., Harvey, B., Harmáčková, Z., Kumar, P., Lahsen, M., Lee, M., Miller, C., Norgaard, R., Pereira, L., Prodani, K., Ranganathan, J., Raudsepp-Hearne, C., Schultz, L., Turnhout, E., Vogel, C., Zurek, M.. 2026. The future of Global Environmental Assessments: 20 years after the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101618

Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are intended to gather expert knowledge on a topic of global importance and present it in a useful format to those who could use the knowledge in decision-making. GEAs have disseminated new knowledge, influenced environmental policy, changed the evolution of science, and furthered many careers. The GEA community has always adapted to changing circumstances, often by increasing the comple...

Michelle Fourie, Odirilwe Selomane, Reinette Biggs, Karen Joan Esler. 2026. The social-ecological impact of blueberry production in South Africa. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6886864

Crop expansion driven by consumer demand from richer countries displaces social-ecological impacts to poorer countries that produce and export these crops. This study applied a life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the potential social-ecological impacts of blueberry expansion in South Africa, driven primarily by demand from the United Kingdom. This study quantified the potential impacts on human health, resource scarcity, a...

Megan Meacham, Beatrice Crona, Garry Peterson. 2026. Corporate biodiversity reporting standards and the risk of distorting what is material. World Biodiversity Forum. https://doi.org/10.5194/wbf2026-197

Biodiversity is making its way into the corporate sphere and becoming a key topic of target setting and disclosure for companies and investors. This is welcome for two reasons; because biodiversity underpins the ecological goods and services that economies and societies depend on, and because information on corporate impact on biodiversity is a prerequisite for estimating likely progress towards biodiversity targets and inform...