New paper: Protecting coral reefs with hopeful visions

“This paper is grounded in hope as a guiding compass: a way to encourage action in the present and to make space for trajectories that avoid the worst outcomes,” says lead author Ignacio Gianelli.

Conversations about coral reefs are often dominated by dystopian narratives. Many projections suggest reefs could face widespread collapse by mid-century, threatening the species and communities that rely on them. Over time, these bleak stories risk becoming self-reinforcing, fuelling a sense of helplessness or misplaced faith in technology-based fixes.

A new study in npj Ocean Sustainability seeks to address this challenge. The authors contend that even under bleak outlooks, shifting the narrative can help people imagine new futures for coral reefs, and develop strategies to help reefs survive and adapt to growing threats.

“Writing about futures for coral reefs amid the fourth global bleaching event was a deeply challenging and at times dissonant experience for many of us, especially for those with lived experience in coral reef regions. Yet coral reefs deserve neither heavy pessimism nor insipid optimism,” says Gianelli.

The authors used a visioning method involving experts working in coral reef science, conservation, and management from around the world to develop three future visions: Reeftopia, Project Reefoir, and The Bay Revolution. An art-science collaboration with Mauritian artist Kim Yip Tong, funded through the World Conservation Society, resulted in three powerful artworks for each of these narratives.

The artworks created by Mauritian artist Kim Yip Tong depict the three future visions: Reeftopia, Project Reefoir, and The Bay Revolution. The art-science collaboration was supported by the Wildlife Conservation Society through a grant from Bloomberg Philanthropies.

“Every time I snorkel on the reef, I’m both amazed and profoundly saddened… I guess this project came as a response. I feel grateful and empowered by the many people investing their energy towards this goal, and I hope these stories and artworks will inspire many more," says artist and co-author Kim Yip Tong.

The visions acknowledge that major environmental and social disruptions may still occur. Instead of ignoring these risks, they explore ways to prepare for them.

For example, the Project Reefoir vision acknowledges that some tipping points may be unavoidable, even if greenhouse gas emissions were to fall quickly. It focuses on building resilience to adapt to a post-tipping world through strategies such as shifting to renewable and locally sourced energy, conserving climate-resilient refuges, and diversifying livelihoods for coral-dependent communities. The vision also highlights advances in restoration science, such as coral husbandry, assisted migration, larval enhancement, and AI-supported reef monitoring.

“As climate tipping points approach and coral reefs become increasingly vulnerable, it is important not just to acknowledge the threats but also to imagine what desirable futures for these critical ecosystems could be. These visions can inspire actions and highlight how local actors can help protect and restore these vital ecosystems, even in the face of global pressures,” says Centre researcher and co-author Laura Pereira.

Participants said that the visioning process, although sometimes challenging, helped inspire hope, freeing them from entrenched thoughts, and offering a safe space to explore alternative solutions.

“Researchers, practitioners and artists worked together to develop visions of desirable futures of coral reefs. This is a first step towards achieving sustainable just pathways for coral reefs and the peoples who depend on them,” says co-author Joachim Claudet.

Read the research article 'Reimagining coral reef futures' here »

The storylines in full can be accessed on the Radical Ocean Futures webpage »