Mountain ecosystems
Chinese mountain model shows new way for building resilience
The source of the Huangshui River is located at Baohutunao Gully, Haiyan County, Qinghai Province. There is a hot spring here, which the local Indigenous people regard as a religious symbol. Photo: Yafei Wang.
Chinese cities, farms, and conservation zones all compete for limited land, while rising temperatures, land degradation, and erosion threaten local livelihoods. A new study in Huangshui River Basin, by an international team of researchers, shows how decision-makers on local and national level can collaborate better and create more resilient societies.
“China’s national strategy aims to safeguard ecological security, but local governments face strong pressure to grow quickly. Aligning these goals is essential for long-term resilience,” says lead author Yafei Wang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The study published in the journal Earth’s Future demonstrates that better coordination between national, provincial, and local land-use policies could strengthen the resilience of both people and ecosystems in China’s fragile mountain regions.
“This research shows how integrated social-ecological modelling can be used to discover strategies that can reduce trade-offs between conflicting values and objectives, to identify more robust pathways for sustainable development,” said Centre researcher Garry Peterson, co-author of the along with Centre researchers Jan Kuiper and Liam Carpenter‐Urquhart.
Grasslands in the upper reaches of the Huangshui River, Haiyan County, Qinghai Province, have suffered severe land degradation due to prolonged overgrazing and climate change. Photo: Yafei Wang.
A mountain region under pressure
The study focuses on the Huangshui River Basin, a densely settled mountain area on the northeastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Although it covers less than one percent of the plateau, it is home to a quarter of its population and a growing share of its industry.
Between 2020 and 2022, the research team collaborated with officials from national ministries, Qinghai provincial agencies, and local governments in Xining, Haidong, and Haibei. These discussions helped translate policy priorities into model scenarios that reflected real-world pressures and decision-making processes.
Similar mountain regions around the world face the same tension between rapid development and fragile ecosystems, making the basin a revealing case study of how policy choices shape resilience under climate stress.
Modeling how learning can shape the future
The scientists used two computer models to explore how different ways of governing land could shape the region’s future. These simulations used official planning documents, climate projections, and forecasts for population and economic growth. Both models were accurate. CLUMondo captured land-use change accurately, and LPJ-GUESS reproduced regional patterns of vegetation and runoff. Together, these tools revealed how policy decisions ripple through ecosystems and economies.
In Minhe County, located in the lower reaches of the Huangshui River, severe soil erosion has prompted the central Chinese government to fund large-scale ecological restoration projects in the area. Photo by Yafei Wang.
The analysis focused on three signs of ecosystem health: how much carbon plants store, how well vegetation protects the soil, and how water moves across the land. The team compared three existing strategies: one reflecting national efforts to protect ecosystems, a regional plan balancing growth and protection, and a local plan emphasizing development. The researchers developed a fourth, Sustainable Development strategy that aimed to balance national, regional, and local objectives.
The Sustainable Development pathway was developed through an iterative process. If the models showed that the land was losing productivity, vegetation cover or water balance, policies were revised. This iterative process models a simple “adaptive governance” approach in which land management policies are updated based environmental outcomes.
Achieving multiple goals
The results highlight how policy choices can shape a place. When local short-term priorities dominated, the value of ecosystem services fell by nearly two-thirds by the end of the century, and erosion increased sharply in vulnerable areas.
However, using the more adaptive Sustainable Development pathway, vegetation cover and soil stability improved, farmland was used more efficiently, and the overall landscape became more resilient. By 2100, natural ecosystems expanded mainly through forest and grassland recovery. These healthier landscapes stored more carbon, reduced flood and drought risk, and improved water quality – delivering clear benefits for both people and nature.
Water runoff proved the most sensitive measure of change, responding strongly to both climate and land management. Erosion can quickly accelerate if development outpaces adaptation, therefore erosion reduction requires land-use plans that flexibly respond to climate change.
Although focused on China, this study shows how a process that reconsiders plans based on their consequences can produce better outcomes that achieve multiple goals.
Read the full study: Integrating multi-level sustainability and ecosystem integrity for adaptive scenario planning in China »
Wang, Y., He, Y., Zhou, H., Kuiper, J.J., Scown, M., Carpenter-Urquhart, L.R., Olin, S., Olsson, L., Ye, Y., Shen, S., Fan, J. & Peterson, G.D. 2025. Integrating Multi-Level Sustainability and Ecosystem Integrity for Adaptive Scenario Planning in China. Earth's Future, 13 (10).
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