New research reveals path to a just world on a safe planet

Scientists have identified a safe and just space for humanity in a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health. Within this space, harm to humans and nature can be minimised while everyone can be provided for.

The study is co-authored by over sixty leading natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission - an international science commission. Several Centre researchers, including Johan Rockström, Juan Rocha, Beatrice Crona, Laura Pereira and Steven Lade, have contributed to the publication.

According to their research findings, the only way to provide for everyone and ensure societies, businesses and economies thrive without destabilising the planet is to reduce inequalities in how critical Earth system resources, such as freshwater and nutrients, are accessed and used - alongside economic and technological transformation.

Earth System Boundaries

This new study builds on work on the Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries, which were published last year, and which are a development of the planetary boundaries. In last year’s paper, scientists identified a “ceiling” for human extraction of natural resources and pollution, based on both Earth system processes and social justice. Now, scientists have added a “foundation” by showing us what the global population needs from the Earth system, to live a life free from poverty.

“For the first time, scientists have quantified safety and justice using the same units in order to determine the path forward to a stable and resilient future in which we can all thrive. This paper shows that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people,” says Centre co-founder Johan Rockström, who is also co-chair of the Earth Commission and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

He continues:

“Communities, poor and rich, across the world, are already vulnerable and will become more exposed - but we have a window to act now and change course.”

National and regional levels

In the new work, the researchers made projections forwards to 2050, and found that the safe and just space is shrinking over time. Inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a minority are key drivers
of this shrinking.

Providing minimum resources for those who don’t currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth system than that currently caused by the minority who use far greater resources.

“We also looked at where on the planet we have breached safe and just boundaries. The findings show that already vulnerable communities are often the most affected by Earth system change. But everyone, including the wealthy, is at risk,” says Centre researcher Juan Rocha, one of the co-authors of the article.