Dynamic Range Models

As the ocean changes due to human-driven climate change, the distribution and abundance of fish are changing, too. This has implications for small-scale and industrial fisheries, as well as livelihoods around the world. To protect both the ocean and the people that depend on healthy fisheries, we need better ways to predict these shifts.

Historically, scientists have often used "static models" to guess where fish will move. In general, these models may look at where fish are now and assume they will move to cooler waters as the ocean warms. However, such models often ignore the "real life" biological factors of the fish themselves - spawning levels, rates of survival to adulthood, etc.

In some cases, a clearer picture may come from using Dynamic Range Models (DRMs). Within the FinRisk project, scientists have been exploring the potential and possibilities of DRMs with an initial focus on small pelagic fisheries in the northeast Atlantic such as Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus).

By combining modeling with financial data, our goal is to understand the potential of "financial weather forecasts" that can drive more sustainable practices by seafood companies. By understanding the risks to their supply chains, companies can move away from short-term guesswork and toward long-term ocean stewardship.

Read preprints about the development and application of DRMs co-authored by members of the FinRisk team: