Publications

Steven Lade, Kate Lawrence, Genevieve Newey, Anita Peerson, Bjorn Sturmberg, Liam Taylor, Stuart Howden. 2024. Submission: Climate Change Authority Issues Paper. Research Gate. DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.11969.77925

The Australian National University (ANU) Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions (ICEDS) welcomes the opportunity to comment on the Climate Change Authority (CCA) Issues Paper on Targets, Pathways and Progress (IP). As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Australia has committed to pursue efforts to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels. The window of time to achieve thi...

My M. Sellberg, SJ Lade, JJ Kuiper, K Malmborg, T Plieninger, Erik Andersson. 2024. Operationalizing pathway diversity in a mosaic landscape. Ecology and Society. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-15255-290326

Understanding and building resilience is critical to responding to the deepening polycrisis. Pathway diversity is a promising approach to resilience that combines individual and systems perspectives, but so far has only been applied to idealized cases. Here, we use a rich case study from the mosaic landscape of Västra Harg, Sweden, to test and advance pathway diversity. Mosaic landscapes can simultaneously produce food, suppor...

Hayley Susan Clements, Emmanuel Do Linh San, Gareth Hempson, Birthe Linden, Bryan Maritz, Ara Monadjem, Chevonne Reynolds, Frances Siebert, Nicola Stevens, Reinette Biggs, Alta De Vos, Ryan Blanchard, Matthew F. Child, Karen Esler, Maike Hamann, Ty Loft, Belinda Reyers, Odirilwe Selomane, Andrew L. Skowno, Tshegofatso Tshoke, Diarrassouba Abdoulaye, Thierry Aebischer, Jesús Aguirre Gutiérrez, Graham Alexander, Abdullahi H. Ali, David G. Allan, Esther Ekua Amoako, Samuel Angedakin, Edward Aruna, Nico Avenant, Gabriel Badjedjea, Adama Bakayoko, Abraham Bamba-kaya, Michael F. Bates, Paul Bates, Steven Belmain, Emily Bennitt, James Bradley, Chris A. Brewster, Michael B. Brown, Michelle Brown, Josef Bryja, Thomas M. Butynski, Filipe Carvalho, Alan Channing, Colin A. Chapman, Callan Cohen, Marina Cords, Jennifer D. Cramer, Nadine Cronk, Pamela M. K. Cunneyworth, Fredrik Dalerum, Emmanuel Danquah, Harriet Davies-Mostert, Andrew de Blocq, Yvonne Anne de Jong, Terrence C Demos, Denys Christiane, Chabi A. M. S. Djagoun, Thomas Doherty-Bone, Marine Drouilly, Johan T. du Toit, David A. Ehlers Smith, Yvette C. Ehlers Smith, Seth J. Eiseb, Peter J. Fashing, Adam W. Ferguson, José María Fernández-García, Manfred Finckh, Claude Fischer, Edson Gandiwa, Philippe Gaubert, Jerome Gaugris, Dalton J. Gibbs, Jason Gilchrist, Jose María Gil-Sánchez, Anthony N. Githitho, Peter S. Goodman, Laurent Granjon, J. Paul Grobler, Bonginkosi C. Gumbi, Vaclav Gvozdik, James Harvey, Morgan Hauptfleisch, Firas Hayder, Emmanuel M. Hema, Marna Herbst, Mariano Houngbédji, Brian J. Huntley, Rainer Hutterer, Samuel T. Ivande, Kate Jackson, Gregory F.M. Jongsma, Javier Juste, Blaise Kadjo, Prince K. Kaleme, Edwin Kamugisha, Beth Kaplin, Humphrey N. Kato, Christian Kiffner, Duncan Kimuyu, Robert M. Kityo, N’goran G. Kouamé, Marcel Kouete T, Aliza le Roux, Alan T. K. Lee, Mervyn C. Lötter, Anne Mette Lykke, Duncan N. MacFadyen, Gacheru P. Macharia, Kim, Themb’alilahlwa A. M. Mahlaba, David Mallon, Mnqobi Lifa Mamba, Claude Mande, Rob A. Marchant, Robin A. Maritz, Wanda Markotter, Trevor McIntyre, John Measey, Addisu Mekonnen, Paulina Meller, Haemish Melville, Kevin Mganga, Michael G. L. Mills, Liaan Minnie, Alain Didier Missoup, Abubakr Mohammad, Nancy N. Moinde, Bakwo Fils Eric Moise, Pedro Monterroso, Jennifer F Moore, Simon Musila, Sedjro Gilles Armel NAGO, Maganizo W. Namoto, Fatimata Niang, violaine nicolas, Jerry B. Nkenku, Evans Ewald Nkrumah, Gonwouo L. Nono, Mulavwa M. Norbert, Katarzyna Nowak, Benneth Obitte, Arnold D. Okoni-Williams, Jonathan Onongo, M. Justin O'Riain, Samuel Temidayo Osinubi, Daniel M. Parker, Francesca Parrini, Mike J. S. Peel, Johannes Penner, Darren Pietersen, Andrew Plumptre, Damian W. Ponsonby, Stefan Porembski, R. John Power, Frans Gustav Theodor Radloff, Ramugondo V. Rambau, Tharmalingam Ramesh, Leigh Richards, Mark-Oliver Rödel, Dominic P. Rollinson, Francesco Rovero, Mostafa A. Saleh, Ute Schmiedel, Corrie Schoeman, Paul Scholte, Thomas L. Serfass, Julie Teresa Shapiro, Sidney Shema, Stefan J. Siebert, Jasper A. Slingsby, Alexander Sliwa, Hanneline Smit-Robinson, Etotepe A. Sogbohossou, , Stephen Spawls, Jarryd P. Streicher, Lourens Swanepoel, Iroro Tanshi, Peter J. Taylor, William A. Taylor, Mariska te Beest, Paul T. Telfer, David Ian Thompson, ELIE TOBI, Krystal A. Tolley, Andrew A. Turner, Wayne Twine, Victor Van Cakenberghe, Frederik Van de Perre, Helga van der Merwe, Chris J. G. van Niekerk, Pieter Van Wyk, Jan A. Venter, Luke Verburgt, Geraldine Veron, Susanne Vetter, Maria (bat) S. Vorontsova, Thomas Wagner, Paul W. Webala, Natalie Weber, Sina M. Weier, Paula White, Melissa A. Whitecross, Benjamin J. Wigley, Frank J. Willems, Christiaan W. Winterbach, Galena M. Woodhouse. 2024. The bii4africa dataset of faunal and floral population intactness estimates across Africa’s major land uses. Scientific Data. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02832-6

Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species’ population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate ‘intactness scores’: the remaining proportion of an ‘intact’ reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on...

Chaplin-Kramer, R., Polasky, S., Alkemade, R., Burgess, N.D., Cheung, W.W.L., Fetzer, I., Harfoot, M., Hertel, T.W., Hill, S.L.L., Andrew Johnson, J., Janse, J.H., José v. Jeetze, P., Kim, H., Kuiper, J.J., Lonsdorf, E., Leclère, D., Mulligan, M., Peterson, G.D., Popp, A., Roe, S., Schipper, A.M., Snäll, T., van Soesbergen, A., Soterroni, A.C., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D.P., Visconti, P., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Wells, G., Pereira, H.M.. 2024. Integrated modeling of nature's role in human well-being: A research agenda. Global Environmental Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102891

Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community’s ability to deliver inform...

Caesar, Levke, Sakschewski, Boris, Andersen, Lauren Seaby, Beringer, Tim, Braun, Johanna, Dennis, Donovan, Gerten, Dieter, Heilemann, Adrian, Kaiser, Jonas, Kitzmann, Niklas H., Loriani, Sina, Lucht, Wolfgang, Ludescher, Josef, Martin, Maria, Mathesius, Sabine, Paolucci, Anja, te Wierik, Sofie, Rockström, Johan. 2024. Planetary Health Check Report 2024. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The Planetary Boundaries Science (PBScience), a new initiative led by PIK director Johan Rockström and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), supported by the Planetary Guardians and other partners, has launched the Planetary Health Check (PHC), a first-of-its-kind scientific report and tool for the health of the Earth’s vital organs that serve as humanity’s life support system. The PHC combines pioneering Ea...

Joyeeta Gupta, Xuemei Bai, Diana M Liverman, Johan Rockström, Dahe Qin, Ben Stewart-Koster, Juan C Rocha, Lisa Jacobson, Jesse F Abrams, Lauren S Andersen, David I Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E Bunn, Daniel Ciobanu, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie L Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Norichika Kanie, Timothy M Lenton, Sina Loriani, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Daniel Ospina, Klaudia Prodani, Crelis Rammelt, Boris Sakschewski, Joeri Scholtens, Thejna Tharammal, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter H Verburg, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm, Elena Bennett, Anders Bjørn, Stefan Bringezu, Wendy J Broadgate, Harriet Bulkeley, Beatrice Crona, Pamela A Green, Holger Hoff, Lei Huang, Margot Hurlbert, Cristina Y A Inoue, Şiir Kılkış, Steven J Lade, Jianguo Liu, Imran Nadeem, Christopher Ndehedehe. 2024. A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00042-1

The health of the planet and its people are at risk. The deterioration of the global commons—ie, the natural systems that support life on Earth—is exacerbating energy, food, and water insecurity, and increasing the risk of disease, disaster, displacement, and conflict. In this Commission, we quantify safe and just Earth-system boundaries (ESBs) and assess minimum access to natural resources required for human dignity and to en...

Rockström, Johan, Warszawski, Lila, Schuster, Antonia. 2024. A Stable Planet is a Prerequisite for Development: Sustainable or Otherwise. Horizons.

During 2023 alone, our planet has provided us with dramatic insights into the extent of human-induced shifts in its self-regulating systems. Having almost brushed the 1.5°C guardrail in 2023, we are now getting a first taste of the future we have been collectively working to avoid. The list of record-breaking extreme weather events—ranging from extreme heat to unprecedentedly destructive floods and storms—is providing a window...

Jessica A. Gephart, Rahul Agrawal Bejarano, Kelvin Gorospe, Alex Godwin, Christopher D. Golden, Rosamond L. Naylor, Kirsty L. Nash, Michael L. Pace, Max Troell. 2024. Globalization of wild capture and farmed aquatic foods. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51965-8

Aquatic foods are highly traded, with nearly 60 million tonnes exported in 2020, representing 11% of global agriculture trade by value. Despite the vast scale, basic characteristics of aquatic food trade, including species, origin, and farmed vs wild sourcing, are largely unknown due to the reporting of trade data. Consequently, we have a coarse picture of aquatic food trade and consumption patterns. Here, we present results f...

Florian Schunck, Marc Wiedermann, Jobst Heitzig, Jonathan Donges. 2024. A Dynamic Network Model of Societal Complexity and Resilience Inspired by Tainter’s Theory of Collapse. Entropy. https://doi.org/10.3390/e26020098

In recent years, several global events have severely disrupted economies and social structures, undermining confidence in the resilience of modern societies. Examples include the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought unprecedented health challenges and economic disruptions, and the emergence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts that have further strained international relations and economic stability. While empirical evidence on ...

Colin Hultgren Egegård, Maja Lindborg, Åsa Gren, Lars Marcus, Meta Berghauser Pont, Johan Colding. 2024. Climate Proofing Cities by Navigating Nature-Based Solutions in a Multi-Scale, Social–Ecological Urban Planning Context: A Case Study of Flood Protection in the City of Gothenburg, Sweden. Land. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13020143

Due to unsustainable land management and climate change, floods have become more frequent and severe over the past few decades and the problem is exacerbated in urban environments. In the context of climate-proofing cities, the importance of nature-based solutions (NBSs), obtaining relevant outcomes in the form of ecosystem services, has been highlighted. Although the role of ecosystem services in building resilience against n...