- Land change modeling
- Participatory and multiscale scenarios
- Cross-scale interactions
- Pathways to a sustainable future
- Agent based modelling
- GHG emission estimates
Ana Paula Aguiar is a researcher working on cross-scale participatory approaches and scenarios
Aguiar is a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre and at the Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE). Her research focuses on pathways to achieve the SDGs (UN Sustainable Development Goals), combining quantitative and qualitative approaches, with a focus on cross-scale participatory processes.
Currently, Aguiar coordinates the XPaths Project (Science in action: intersecting pathways to the SDGs across scales in drylands, one of the selected projects for the FORMAS “Realising the global sustainable development goals” program). This project addresses the critical issues of co-designing inclusive pathways towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through a science-action research process in three critical dryland regions - Senegal, Brazil and Spain. The project will run from 2021 to 2023 aiming at advancing the knowledge on barriers and leverage points for the achievement of the SDGs through participative transdisciplinary processes operating at multiple levels, from local to global, as a means to connect global goals to local issues and aspirations.
Aguiar joined SRC in 2017 to contribute to the center activities around UN 2030 Agenda, mainly the global initiative TWI2050 - a global initiative which supports the policy process and implementation of the UN Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). One of her key activities during this period was the development of an innovative pathways approach adapted to the context of the SDGs (Aguiar et al. 2021, Colste et al. 2020, Aguiar et al., 2019). Related to this work, she is currently part of the SHAPE consortium, a global modelling initiative aligned to TWI2050. The consortium's role at SRC is to organize the participatory process to co-design the new scenario narratives.
From 2016 to 2021, she contributed in multiple ways to the IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services), in particular as a Lead Author in IPBES Global Assessment launched in 2019 and as an expert in the scoping of the Nexus Assessment. She is also member of the IPBES Task Force in Models and Scenarios since 2019. She has also contributed eventually to IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) as a scenario expert.
Aguiar holds a Bachelor degree in Computer Science (UNICAMP), MSc in Remote Sensing/Image Processing and PhD in Remote Sensing/Environmental Modeling (INPE). She has supervised a number of PhD and MSc students, working on various aspects of land use and cover issues, from local to regional scale, including deforestation, forest degradation, secondary growth vegetation dynamics, desertification and restoration. At INPE, she led the development of the open source spatially explicit modelling frameworks for land use change (LuccME) and greenhouse gas emission estimates (INPE-EM).
News articles with Aguiar, Ana Paula
Research news | 2021-09-02
Uncovering the distal human and environmental impacts of China’s reforestation efforts
How and why national sustainability initiatives contribute to unsustainable global development
Research news | 2021-08-26
Why local realities are crucial to global environmental assessments
Locally, bottom-up-inspired futures are missing from global environmental assessments. A new method tested on the UN’s Global Environment Outlook 6 hopes to change this
Research news | 2021-03-01
Connecting drylands to the SDGs
XPaths is a Formas-funded research project that explores the critical issues of co-designing inclusive pathways towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Research news | 2020-09-23
Centre receives funding boost from Swedish research council Formas
Three projects looking at ways to realise the Sustainable Development Goals receive almost SEK 60 million in funding
Publications by Aguiar, Ana Paula
Projections of future forest degradation and CO2 emissions for the Brazilian Amazon
Journal / article | 2022
In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km2, representing almost two times the 99,630 km2 deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carbon stocks, affecting the CO2 balance and future climate changes. This paper aims...
Spatio-temporal analysis of dynamics and future scenarios of anthropic pressure on biomes in Brazil
Journal / article | 2022
Anthropogenic transformations, which have become intensified by land use and land cover changes and industrialization, have contributed to increased anthropogenic pressure on biodiversity. These disturbances contribute toward fragmentating habitats at different scales and putting species at risk, in addition to compromising the main biogeochemical cycles. To better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of anthropogenic pressu...
Rural landscapes and agrarian spaces under soybean expansion dynamics: a case study of the Santarém region, Brazilian Amazonia
Journal / article | 2021
Following the boom of soybean production from 2000 to 2006 in the Santarém region of the Brazilian Amazon, the mechanized agricultural area remained stable, unlike other regions. Deforestation was controlled, but this initial expansion led to the restructuring of the agrarian space in the region. Given this scenario, we aimed to understand the mechanized agricultural expansion effects in the region by comparing the periods 199...
New land use change scenarios for Brazil: refining global SSPs with a regional spatially-explicit allocation model
Journal / article | 2021
The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, in particular due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the interlink between global factors, due to its role as one of the main exporters of commodities in the world, and the national to local institutional, socioeconomic and bio...