Publications

Hannah Prawitz, Luana Schwarz, Wolfram Barfuss, Sibel Eker, Johannes Halbe, Jonathan Friedemann Donges. 2026. Supplementary material to "Towards modelling the World-Earth System: A Systematic Literature Review of the State of the Art and Ways Forward". EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3862-supplement

Hannah Prawitz, Luana Schwarz, Wolfram Barfuss, Sibel Eker, Johannes Halbe, Jonathan Friedemann Donges. 2026. Towards modelling the World-Earth System: A Systematic Literature Review of the State of the Art and Ways Forward. EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3862

Understanding coupled World-Earth system dynamics is central to navigating the Anthropocene, yet global social and environmental systems are still predominantly modelled separately. Bidirectionally coupled models of global scale that represent both subsystems as endogenous components are increasingly developed, but the field remains fragmented across disciplines, modelling traditions, and epistemological assumptions. This stu...

Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Hannah Prawitz, Werner von Bloh, Christoph Müller, Stephen Björn Wirth, Max Bechthold, Dieter Gerten, Jonathan F. Donges. 2026. copan:LPJmL: a new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management. Geoscientific Model Development. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6829-2026

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are established in environmental and agricultural sciences for many purposes, e.g., modelling plant growth and productivity, water and carbon cycles, and biosphere-climate interactions. Nevertheless, DGVMs are still rather limited in terms of simulating mutual interactions between biospheric and human processes. While DGVMs such as the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model have b...

Kobe De Maeyer, Jakob Harteg, Jonathan F. Donges, Ricarda Winkelmann, Sina Loriani. 2026. Aggregating signals of Earth system dynamics across space, time, models, and variables. EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3389

Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) provide standardised computer simulations of the Earth system, offering unique opportunities to systematically detect and assess features and dynamics, such as abrupt shifts, across diverse models and variables. Recent advances combine time-series analysis with spatiotemporal clustering to identify dynamically connected regions within individual datasets. Yet, extending this notion of conn...

Jakob Harteg, Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges. 2026. Quantifying resilience in non-autonomous and stochastic Earth system dynamics with application to glacial-interglacial cycles. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-673-2026

Understanding Earth resilience – the capacity of the Earth system to absorb and regenerate from perturbations – is key to assessing risks from anthropogenic pressures and sustaining a safe operating space for humanity within planetary boundaries. Classical resilience indicators are designed for autonomous systems with fixed attractors, but the Earth system is fundamentally non-autonomous and out of equilibrium, calling for new...

Johan Rockström, Maria A. Martin, Andrey Ganopolski, Jonathan F. Donges, Georg Feulner, Norbert Marwan, Stefan Rahmstorf. 2026. We Are in the Anthropocene—Now What?. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007730

While the term “Anthropocene” is well established across scientific disciplines and social spheres, interpretations are diverse. Taking account of the 2024 rejection by a geological commission to accept the Anthropocene as a geological epoch and the related scientific debate, here we offer a future-oriented perspective from the viewpoint of Earth system science. We describe different pathways in the Anthropocene up to the yea...

Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Marlene Rimmert, Luana Schwarz, Lorenz Sieben, Stephen B. Wirth, Christoph Müller, Dieter Gerten, Donges Jonathan. 2026. Modelling planetary transition pathways to conservation agriculture under climate change. EGU26. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12491

Agricultural production systems are increasingly constrained by interacting social-ecological pressures. While a growing world population and dietary shifts are increasing the demand for agricultural crop products, seven out of nine planetary boundaries are breached, with climate change at the forefront. On the production side, farmers face the challenge of implementing climate-resilient farming systems that can operate within...

Hannah Prawitz, Luana Schwarz, Wolfram Barfuss, Sibel Eker, Johannes Halbe, Jonathan F. Donges. 2026. Towards modelling the Anthropocene: A systematic review of World-Earth models. EGU26. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13363

Ever since we entered the Anthropocene, (some) humans are not only affected by earth system changes but are the most important determinant of environmental alterations like climate change and the sixth mass extinction. These changes lead to nonlinear interactions and co-evolutionary dynamics that challenge current predominant modeling approaches. Thus, we need models that incorporate true bidirectional interactions between soc...

Jonathan Krönke, Arie Staal, Jonathan F. Donges, Johan Rockström, Nico Wunderling. 2026. A data-driven modelling approach to quantify the safe operating space of the Amazon rainforest under global warming and deforestation. EGU26. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6621

The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the core tipping elements in the climate system with a potential tipping point in the range of 2-6℃ of global warming. However, the complexity of tropical ecosystems makes climate change projections on the future of the Amazon rainforest inherently difficult. Furthermore, deforestation as an additional driver plays a key role in the Amazon rainforest and can synergistically interfere ...

Niki Lohmann, Jonathan Donges, Nico Wunderling. 2026. Carbon Dioxide Removal Pathways in Climate Overshoots Are Decisive for Tipping Risks in an Earth System Model-Based Tipping Dynamics Emulator. EGU26. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6801

As the aim of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels is getting out of reach, the world enters a risk zone for climate tipping points. For several crucial tipping elements, such as the polar ice sheets and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a tipping threshold below 2°C cannot be ruled out. We develop an emulator for tipping elements to assess the risks of continental and regional tipp...