Climate science
The climate negotiations must be guided by these ten science insights
A sea star underwater, a bright blue sea star spread over the coral of a dying or dead reef in Viti Levu, Fiji. Photo: Tom Vierus / Climate Visuals (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Ahead of the climate summit COP30 in Brazil, this year’s '10 New Insights in Climate Science' calls for delivery as the world can no longer afford new promises without action
The report “10 New Insights in Climate Science” is published annually and coordinated by Future Earth in Stockholm. It summarizes the latest and most important findings in climate science ahead of the UN climate summits, this time COP30 in Brazil, 10-21 November.
This year’s report warns that the planet’s natural carbon sinks are reaching critical limits, absorbing fewer emissions than expected as decades of climate change has weakened their capacity. Nature-based carbon removal projects (e.g., tree planting) are also at risk, meaning their long-term reliability and storage capacity cannot be guaranteed. Large-scale deployment of removals is still necessary, but if not properly implemented, it could threaten food security and biodiversity. All things considered, the new report cautions that global climate targets may now face major setbacks.
“The climate negotiations must be guided by science, and the 10 New Insights provide the best summary of the latest updates in climate science. These insights provide overwhelming evidence that we are in a state of climate urgency, which means that COP30 must be the COP of implementation – we can no longer afford new promises without delivery,” says Centre co-founder Johan Rockström, co-chair of The Earth League and a member of the report’s editorial board.
The 10 New Insights in Climate Science is a collaboration between Future Earth, the Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme, involving 70 globally renowned scientists from 21 countries.
The impacts of the exceptional marine heatwaves in 2023–2024.
Centre involvement
Stockholm Resilience Centre is one of the institutional members of the Earth League and Johan Rockström is, as mentioned above, co-chair of The Earth League and one of the editors of the new report. Moreover, Daniel Ospina from the Swedish Future Earth Secretariat, who is one of two coordinating editors of the report, is also a PhD candidate at the Centre. Axel Eriksson, a research assistant at the Centre, was one of the reviewers of the policy implications of the report. He is also one of 14 young climate leaders worldwide appointed by the UN Secretary-General to the global Youth Advisory Group on Climate Change, and he will be participating in Brazil in this capacity.
This year’s report emphasizes that record-breaking temperatures in 2023 and 2024, accelerating ocean warming, and the growing strain on ecosystems and societies are all symptoms of delayed action. It also concludes that this stems from one root cause – the failure to cut emissions at the speed and scale required. The message from the scientists ahead of COP30 is unequivocal: the science is clear, the solutions and limitations are known, and now is the time to deliver.
The full list of new insights
- Record warming 2023/24: Evidence on the drivers behind recent global temperature jumps suggests a possible acceleration of global warming.
- Accelerated ocean warming: Rapid ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves are harming ecosystems and increasing extreme weather risks.
- Strain on land carbon sinks: Global land carbon sinks are showing signs of stress as the planet continues to warm.
- Climate–biodiversity feedback: Biodiversity loss and climate change reinforce each other in a destabilising loop.
- Declining groundwater levels: Climate change is accelerating groundwater depletion, increasing risks to agriculture and urban settlements.
- Climate-driven dengue outbreaks: Rising temperatures are creating more favourable conditions for the mosquitoes that spread dengue, driving the disease’s geographical spread and intensity.
- Impacts on labour productivity: Increasing heat stress is projected to reduce working hours and economic output.
- Scaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR): Scaling CDR responsibly is essential, but with a focus on hard-to-abate emissions and limiting climate overshoot.
- Carbon market integrity challenges: Strengthening standards and transparency in voluntary carbon markets is needed to ensure real mitigation benefits.
- Effective policy mixes: Carefully designed policy mixes are more effective than single measures in achieving deep and lasting emission cuts.
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