polycrises research

Finding patterns in a world of crises

Flooding in the streets of Kłodzko, Poland

Iron Bridge in Kłodzko, Poland, during the 2024 floods. Photo by Jacek Halicki via Wikimedia Commons

Imagine a game where every move affects the entire board and outcome. This is today's reality, where climate change, social inequality, economic instability, and geopolitical tensions are all intertwined, and a small shift in one of them could have cascading effects.

In WorldTrans latest publication about polycrises, a term that describes how crises amplify each other and therefore making them harder to tackle, Centre reseacher David Collste and co-authors have looked at the possibilities to see if patterns guided by system archetypes can help us understand what actions are needed.

System archetypes are like “storylines” that repeat in many places — at work, in nature, and in society. Three of these classical system archetypes are in focus in the publication, and applied to the intersection of multiple crises.

A new era of unpredictable crises

We're moving from a time when tomorrow was predictable, to an era where surprises are the norm. Unexpected events are becoming more common.

“These can disrupt our lives and challenge our ability to respond effectively. Understanding how these crises interact is crucial for finding solutions that work,” Collste explains.

The domino effect has always been a part of the climate crisis. Changes in one end impact other areas; the climate can impact food production, leading to supply shocks causing shortages and higher prices.

This can worsen social inequalities, as those with fewer resources struggle to cope. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions can make international cooperation difficult, slowing down efforts to address these issues.

Can we use patterns to find solutions?

To make sense of this complexity, experts use something called system archetypes.These are causal structures giving rise to behavioural patterns that help us see how different crises are connected. By identifying such patterns, we can find spots and places in the pattern where small changes can lead to big improvements.

This first pattern, converging constraints, shows how limits, like finite resources, can restrict growth and create pressure across different systems. For example, as we use more natural resources, we face greater environmental challenges.

Deepening divides is a pattern of inequality and is a major issue that can worsen other crises. When resources are unevenly distributed, it becomes harder for everyone to cope with challenges like climate change.

Quick fixes don't address the root of the problem. This last pattern, crisis deferral, highlights the need for long-term solutions that tackle underlying issues rather than just symptoms.

Mapping the way forward

By understanding these patterns, we can better navigate the complex challenges ahead. This approach helps us focus on the root causes of crises, paving the way for more effective and sustainable solutions.

The polycrisis is a reminder that our world is interconnected. Solving these challenges requires cooperation, creativity, and a willingness to look beyond challenges and problems. By embracing systems thinking, David Collste thinks that we can work towards a future where we are better prepared to handle whatever comes our way.

Original text by: Charlotte Stark, Worldtrans

More about the study

The article explores the interconnected challenges facing Europe and the world, including climate change, economic instability, and geopolitical tensions. It discusses how these crises are interlinked and highlights the importance of collaborative approaches to address them effectively. The piece includes expert assessments and opinions on leveraging system archetypes to understand and mitigate the compounded effects of these crises, offering actionable insights for policymakers and leaders.

The article provides an overview of the concept of polycrisis and proposes the use of polycrisis patterns to understand it better. It emphasises the need for coordinated efforts and strategic planning, which are crucial for the EU as it navigates complex global challenges.

Read "Polycrisis patterns: applying system archetypes to crisis interactions" here »

Published: 2025-06-13

Related info

Read the full article here:
Polycrisis patterns: applying system archetypes to crisis interactions

Citation

Collste, D., Apetrei, C.I., Sweeney, L.B., Boucher, J.L., Goh, J.C.-L., Hamant, O., Mandl, C.E., Mehers, G.S.M., Oda, R. & Vries, B.J.M. de 2025. Polycrisis patterns: applying system archetypes to crisis interactions. Global Sustainability 8, e17
https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.21

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