New quantifications: Planetary Boundaries in the future

The new study, recently published in Nature, includes Centre researchers Sarah Cornell and Johan Rockström as co-authors, alongside researchers from several Dutch environmental institutes and agencies.

"Human civilisation has reached a critical juncture, and using a novel methodology, we show how it can continue to develop without ruining its natural foundations," says Johan Rockström, who is also the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "This is the most comprehensive coupling so far of the framework of planetary boundaries to data from model-based future scenarios."

The authors used an Integrated Assessment Model to make projections for 2030 and 2050 for eight out of nine planetary boundaries, based on three different scenarios. While two scenarios showed bleak results, the third showed that with timely action, negative trends can be reversed.

The encouraging news is that interventions - such as implementing the Paris Climate Agreement, adopting healthier diets, and improving the efficiency of food, water, and nutrient use - can significantly reduce planetary boundary overshoot. These actions can steer humanity toward a more sustainable trajectory, provided they are implemented in ways that are socially and institutionally feasible.

"We can clearly quantify the danger of business as usual, while showing that ambitious change pays off", says Johan Rockström.

Three scenarios, one positive outcome

The scenarios used were based on three of the "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSP) scenarios from the IPPC's Sixth Assessment Report, with additional policy assumptions. SSP 2, assuming no major shift in current societal trends - that is, business-as-usual - was used as a baseline. It showed further degradation for nearly all indicators for the 2030 and 2050 projections. Its results were compared to the results of SSP 3, an even more pessimistic scenario with regional competition slowing down economic and technological development, which led to worse outcomes for most indicators.

SSP 1, however, allowed for some optimism. The scenario assumes a modest shift towards higher resource efficiency, rapid technological development, and low population growth. Unlike the others, it showed that it is possible to significantly reduce the increase in environmental degradation towards 2050.

Much work still to be done

Despite the relative optimism of SSP 1, the researchers caution that several planetary boundaries will remain breached for all scenarios, partly due to inertia. They conclude that business-as-usual will lead the world in an increasingly dangerous direction, but that ambitious policies can reduce the degree of transgression. This does, however, require ambitious, urgent, and universal action.

Read the full article Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries here »