COP29: Possible to limit climate change to 1.5°C – if EU and 17 other countries go beyond their own targets

A pressing question at the ongoing 29th annual UN Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, is how to transition away from fossil fuels and speed up climate mitigation in line with the 1.5°C global warming target. To address this, a new study published in Nature Communications quantifies how much each country should reduce or remove carbon dioxide emissions beyond their current national commitments.

Aside from further domestic reductions, this additional carbon accountability also requires countries to finance carbon removal, or emission reductions outside their territories.

The study, written by Centre researchers together with colleagues from Chalmers University of Technology, and Uppsala University, identifies 18 high-income and upper-middle-income countries, including the EU, that should be accountable for increasing their ambitions to stay within their equal per capita share of the global carbon budget for 1.5 °C.

The researchers find that additional carbon accountability is highest for the United States and China, and highest per capita for the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

“The ambition of this article is to suggest opportunities to enhance climate fairness and close the mitigation gap in the real world, based on the Paris Agreement,” says Centre researcher Thomas Hahn, lead author of the new study.

In general, high-income countries have large carbon debts while several upper-middle income countries have high future emissions. Four of the 18 countries could theoretically fulfil their accountability with stricter domestic emission reductions.

“14 of these 18 countries have a larger accountability than planned future emissions, meaning they would need to increase ambitions for carbon dioxide removal or for emission reductions in other countries, in addition to stricter emissions reductions,” says Centre researcher Ingo Fetzer, one of the co-authors.

As an example, besides reaching its 2030 reduction target and net zero by 2050, the EU would need to remove an additional 48 gigatons (Gt) carbon dioxide or finance additional reductions beyond current targets in other countries. For China, the additional carbon accountability is 150 Gt and the USA 167 Gt.

“Our study shows that it’s high time for the European Union to enhance its climate targets, instruments, and financing, to take responsibility for its fair share of a global carbon budget compatible with the Paris Agreement,” says co-author Mikael Karlsson from Climate Change Leadership, Department of Earth Sciences, at Uppsala University.

Read the full article "Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions" here »