Finding robust fisheries management strategies under deep uncertainty

As climate change intensifies, global fisheries are increasingly challenged by unpredictable environmental shifts. Traditional models that rely on understanding stock responses to climate factors, such as recruitment rates, often fall short due to deep uncertainty.

A new study applied a framework called Robust Decision Making (RDM) to assess North Sea cod’s ability to support sustainable fisheries under various climate and exploitation scenarios. By testing 40,000 combinations of factors, the study found no single strategy fully resilient to all uncertainties. However, it suggests a balanced approach considering trade-offs between stock conservation and profitability. This research is a critical step in developing adaptable management plans for a range of potential futures, ensuring sustainable fisheries in a changing climate.