Land-system change

Forests play a vital role in stabilizing the Earth’s climate, supporting biodiversity, and sustaining human well-being. However, forest loss and other land-system changes continue at alarming rates, driven by complex and region-specific pressures.

Agriculture – especially livestock grazing and cropland expansion – is the leading direct cause, but deeper forces like illegal logging, infrastructure expansion, weak governance, and climate change also play major roles. In the Amazon, for example, deforestation often begins with illegal timber extraction before land is converted to pasture.

The impacts of forest loss are profound. It disrupts biodiversity, increases carbon emissions, alters rainfall patterns, and weakens soil and water systems. It also affects human health, for example by increasing malaria risk in deforested areas. Climate change and water stress are further amplifying damage through heatwaves, fires, and bark beetle outbreaks. If land degradation continues, it will weaken our chances of stabilizing the climate, securing water, and protecting biodiversity. To stay within safe limits, we must urgently protect and restore healthy ecosystems – keeping the land resilient, and Earth livable, for generations to come.

Control Variables

The Planetary Boundary for Land-System Change focuses on the balance between natural ecosystems and land converted for human use, especially forests. Forests are vital for storing carbon, regulating water and climate, and supporting biodiversity. The boundary is tracked mainly through the share of original forest cover remaining in different biomes. Large-scale clearing and degradation have pushed many regions beyond safe limits, particularly in the tropics, where forests have been most heavily converted for agriculture, grazing, and resource extraction. Although some areas show signs of recovery through reforestation and regrowth, the overall global trend remains one of continued loss and fragmentation.

Impacts

Forests and other land ecosystems are the foundation of life on land. They store vast amounts of carbon, keep the climate and water cycles in balance, and provide habitat for countless species. When forests are cleared or degraded, these natural systems lose their ability to regulate the planet’s climate, purify water, and hold soil in place. Because land systems connect so closely with other parts of Earth’s environment—like the atmosphere, water, and living organisms—changes in land use can ripple through the entire Earth system.