Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

This repository contains supplementary code and data for manuscript "Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise". Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors like land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. This study addresses these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies to 2100.

We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides, and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled SSP-RCP scenarios, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding in 2100 than the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions significantly influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating significant national and sub-national agency to manage coastal risk with a range of policies.