Transforming towards what? A review of futures-thinking applied in the quest for navigating sustainability transformations

There is a growing call for transformations to remain within safe and just Earth system boundaries. Coherent visions of desired futures can help motivate and orient such transformations towards Sustainability, but the nature of these transformed futures is not well understood. This gap has inspired a growing body of research on 'preferable' or 'desirable' futures, which can help to unpack what endpoints such transformations to sustainability could entail and what is needed to get there. In this paper, we adopt a mixed methods approach to review the research literature focused on transformative futures so as to gain a general overview of the field and then undertake two qualitative analyses: (i) unpacking the methods, terms and types of outputs produced; and (ii) capturing emergent themes, commonalities and divergences in what is deemed to be a sustainable transformation in the future based on normative visions from either North, South or Global perspectives. Our findings show that the literature landscape on explorative scenarios has significantly increased in the past ten years with most publications led by authors in the Global North. From the fraction of studies that describe desirable futures, visions highlight social, environmental and equity dimensions, but nuances were found between North and South. The visions that suggest the most transformative potential seek a more harmonious human-nature relationship and consider outcomes holistically, but only a fraction offer actual 'alternatives' to the status quo. We find that several gaps remain at the interface of biodiversity/ecosystems and justice, or the integration and impact of diverse knowledges and cultures. Addressing these in participatory, just and creative ways seems of utmost urgency. We hope this review can offer a glimpse of how futures-thinking can contribute to research and action on sustainability transformations, and the insights can inform and inspire future research.