Modeling human wellbeing on a finite planet towards 2100 with Earth4All

How can wellbeing for all be reached while reducing risks of destabilizing the planet? This ambition underlies the 2030 Agenda but analyzing whether it is possible requires linking global socioeconomic developments with life-supporting Earth systems, incorporating feedback between them. Our new integrated systems model, Earth4All, enables exploration of plausible developments of human wellbeing and environmental pressures, 1980-2100. The relatively simple model focuses on quantifying and capturing high-level feedback between socioeconomic and environmental domains. It can analyze economic transformations towards increased wellbeing with reduced pressures on planetary boundaries. The model includes two key novelties: a social tension index and a wellbeing index, to track societal progress this century. Modeling results indicate that decision-making as usual likely leads to rising social tensions, worsening environmental pressures and declining wellbeing. We propose five turnarounds that in the model can shift the human world off the current trajectory, improve global wellbeing and ease environmental pressures.