Operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework to catalyze the development of nature-future scenarios

Summary

Scenarios and models are powerful tools for exploring the likely future outcomes of alternative social-ecological development pathways and for informing policy decisions. However, one of the key messages made by the Methodological Assessment of Scenarios and Models by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) was that existing scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services have important shortcomings and gaps that constrain their usefulness for halting the dangerously declining trend of nature and Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) (IPBES 2016b). Specifically, most of the existing scenarios and related analyses, especially at global and regional scales, are limited to assessing the impacts of drivers on a few facets of nature and NCP, often failing to address their linkages or feedbacks, to consider multiple spatial scales, or to incorporate policy objectives related to nature conservation (IPBES 2016b, 2019). Besides, they have limitations in their ability to incorporate shared values, norms, and policy objectives related to nature conservation and good quality of life (IPBES 2016a). Most importantly, the existing approaches often emphasize negative trends and drivers, rather than identifying desirable futures for nature and people with multiple alternative pathways to reach there.

Information

Link to centre authors: Peterson, Garry
Publication info: Lundquist, C., Hashimoto, S., Denboba, M.A., Peterson, G., Pereira, L. & Armenteras, D. 2021. Operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework to catalyze the development of nature-future scenarios. Sustainability Science 16(6), 1773–1775.

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