New hope to avert climate catastrophe

Understanding global risks in our current, increasingly turbulent world is necessary if we are to forge a path towards resilient economic development. We tend to forget, or ignore, that human pressures on the planet have reached levels that may trigger major social-ecological shocks, undermining the gains of the past and our prospects for the future.

Take the climate system. As we meet at the World Economic Forum’s 2015 Annual meeting we are very likely to have reached 450 ppm in concentration of all greenhouse gases. This has a high probability of committing the world to 2 ºC warming, the politically agreed upon planetary climate boundary. But it is important to recognise that 450 ppm also holds a less likely, but significant 1.6 % probability (according to the IPCC 5th assessment) of resulting in 6 ºC warming, which is beyond any doubt a catastrophic outcome for humanity.