We have built a simulation model (Earth3) to help answer two research questions: How many of the 17 UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) will be achieved by 2030? And: What will be the resulting pressure on 9 planetary boundaries (PBs)? Our tentative answer is that he world will not reach all SDGs by 2030, nor by 2050, and that the global safety margin (the buffer between the human impact and planetary boundaries) will continue to decline. Additional economic growth and extra focus on SDG achievement does not change this conclusion: transformative change seems necessary. On the methodological level our main result is “proof of concept”: we show that it is possible to combine a socio-economic model of human activity with an ecological model of the resulting environmental effects, and use this “global system model” to forecast future achievement of SDGs and the resulting pressure on PBs. But model improvement is needed to reduce the uncertainty in our answers.
Research news | 2020-11-24
While hurdles remain, the region can build on the shared history of collaboration to tackle food system challenges together, new insight papers show
Research news | 2020-11-19
Stephan Barthel, Oonsie Biggs, Örjan Bodin, Thomas Elmqvist, Carl Folke, Per Olsson, Garry Peterson and Johan Rockström on exclusive list of world’s most influential researchers
Research news | 2020-11-18
Four ways to understand the complexity of global environmental change sufficiently well to take policy action
Research news | 2020-11-16
On the island of Stora Karlsö, the steel built lab gives researchers access to observe the largest seabird colony in the Baltic Sea
Research news | 2020-11-13
The clothing industry is dominated by a clutch of powerful companies, but interest groups around them are crucial in efforts to make it more sustainable
Research news | 2020-11-12
The pandemic is hitting the seafood industry hard. How can past crises help it survive this one?