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Havenhand, J., A-S. Crépin, H.L. Filipsson, S. Jagers, D. Langlet, S. Matti, S. Niiranen, M. Troell, L.G. Anderson, V. Galaz, E. Kritzberg, D. Turner, M. Winder, P. de Wit. 2017. Acidification of Swedish seas in a changing environment: causes, consequences, and responses. The Environmental committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
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Lade, S.J., S. Niiranen. 2017. Generalized modeling of empirical social-ecological systems. Natural Resource Modeling 30(3): e12129.
Modeling social‐ecological systems is difficult due to the complexity of ecosystems and of individual and collective human behavior. Key components of the social‐ecological system are often over‐simplified or omitted. Generalized modeling is a dynamical systems approach that can overcome some of these challenges. It can rigorously analyze qualitative system dynamics such as regime shifts despite incomplete knowledge of the mod...
Griffiths, J.R., M. Kadin, F.J.A. Nascimento, T. Tamelander, A. Tornroos, S. Bonaglia, E. Bonsdorff, V. Bruchert, A. Gardmark, M. Jarnstrom, J. Kotta, M. Lindegren, M.C. Nordstrom, A. Norkko, J. Olsson, B. Weigel, R. Zydelis, T. Blenckner, S. Niiranen, M. Winder. 2017. The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world. Global Change Biology 23(6): 2179-2196.
Benthic–pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses...
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Scharin, H., S. Ericsdotter, M. Elliott, R.K. Turner, S. Niiranen, T. Blenckner, K. Hyytiäinen, L. Ahlvik, H. Ahtiainen, J. Artell, L. Hasselström, T. Söderqvist, J. Rockström. 2016. Processes for the sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Ecological Economics 128: 55 – 67.
Sustainable stewardship of the marine environment necessitates a holistic approach encompassing all the relevant drivers, activities and pressures causing problems for the natural state of the system and their impact on human societies today and in the future. This article provides a framework as well as a decision support process and tool that could guide such an approach. In this process, identifying costs and benefits of mi...
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Uusitalo, L., S. Korpinen, J.H. Andersen, S. Niiranen, S. Valanko, A.-S. Heiskanen, M. Dickey-Collas. 2015. Exploring methods for predicting multiple pressures on ecosystem recovery: A case study on marine eutrophication and fisheries. Continental Shelf Research
Efforts to attain good environmental status in the marine realm require decisions which cannot be done without knowledge of effects of different management measures. Given the wide diversity of marine ecosystems, multitude of pressures affecting it and the still poor understanding on linkages between those, there are likely no models available to give all the required answers. Hence, several separate approaches can be used in ...
Lade, S.J., S. Niiranen, J. Hentati-Sundberg, T. Blenckner, W.J. Boonstra, K. Orach, M.F. Quaas, H. Österblom, M. Schlüter. 2015. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 112: 11120–11125
"Natural resource management is people management" is a cliché, but the effects of human behavior on the condition of natural resources, and vice versa, are often still not sufficiently acknowledged when modeling and managing natural resources. We constructed an empirically parameterized model of the boom and collapse of Baltic cod fisheries in the 1980s that explicitly took these two-way interactions between human action and...
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Meier H. E. M., H. C. Andersson, B. Arheimer, C. Donnelly, K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafsson, L. Kotwicki, T.-S. Neset, S. Niiranen, J. Piwowarczyk, O. P. Savchuk, F. Schenk, J. M. Węsławski, E. Zorita. 2014. Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management. AMBIO 43:37-48, doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6
We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. 'Time-dependent scenario simulations for the perio...
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Gårdmark, A., M. Lindegren, S. Neuenfeldt, T. Blenckner, E. Aro, O. Heikinheimo, B. Müller-Karulis, S. Niiranen, M. Tomczak, A. van Leeuwen, A. Wikström & C. Möllmann. 2013. Biological Ensemble Modelling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources. , Ecological Applications 23:742-754
Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using m...
Daewel, U., S. S. Hjollo, M. Huret, R. Ji, M. Maar, S. Niiranen, M. Travers-Trolet, M. A. Peck, K. E. van de Wolfshaar (2013) Predation control of zooplankton dynamics: a review of observations and models, ICES Journal of Marine Science :, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst125
We performed a literature review to examine to what degree the zooplankton dynamics in different regional marine ecosystems across the Atlantic Ocean is driven by predation mortality and how the latter is addressed in available modelling approaches. In general, we found that predation on zooplankton plays an important role in all the six considered ecosystems, but the impacts are differently strong and occur at different spati...
Tomczak MT, Heymans JJ, Yletyinen J, Niiranen S, Otto SA, et al. (2013) Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea. PLoS ONE 8(10): e75439. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0075439
Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to...
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