Publications

Scheffer, M., S. Barrett, S.R. Carpenter, C. Folke, A.J. Green, M. Holmgren, T.P. Hughes, S. Kosten, I.A. van de Leemput, D.C. Nepstad, E.H. van Nes, E.T.H.M. Peeters, B. Walker. 2015. Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems. Science 347: 1317–1319.

Although some ecosystem responses to climate change are gradual, many ecosystems react in highly non-linear ways. They show little response until a threshold or tipping point isreached where even a small perturbation may trigger collapse into a state from which recovery is difficult. Increasing evidence shows that the critical climate level for such collapse may be altered by conditions that can be managed locally. These syner...

Scheffer, M., J. Bascompte, T.K. Bjordam, S.R. Carpenter, L.B. Clarke, C. Folke, P. Marquet, N. Mazzeo, M. Meerhoff, O. Sala, F.R. Westley. 2015. Dual thinking for scientists. Ecology and Society 20(2): 3.

Recent studies provide compelling evidence for the idea that creative thinking draws upon two kinds of processes linked to distinct physiological features, and stimulated under different conditions. In short, the fast system-I produces intuition whereas the slow and deliberate system-II produces reasoning. System-I can help see novel solutions and associations instantaneously, but is prone to error. System-II has other biase...

van den Bergh, J., C. Folke, S. Polasky, M. Scheffer, W. Steffen. 2015. What if solar energy becomes really cheap? A thought experiment on environmental problem shifting. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 14: 170–179.

Solving one environmental problem may often invoke or intensify another one. Such environmental problem shifting (EPS) is a neglected topic in global sustainability research. Indeed, it is difficult to study as it requires the merging of insights from various research areas. Here we identify relevant studies, and provide an illustration and guidelines for the systematic study of EPS. As a modest thought experiment to illustr...

Steffen, W., K. Richardson, J. Rockström, S.E. Cornell, I. Fetzer, E.M. Bennett, R. Biggs, S.R. Carpenter, W. De Vries, C.A. De Wit, C. Folke, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, G.M. Mace, L.M. Persson, V. Ramanathan, B. Reyers, S. Sörlin. 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347: 736, 1259855

The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundar...

Österblom, H., J.-B. Jouffray, C. Folke, B. Crona, M. Troell, A. Merrie, J. Rockström. 2015. Transnational corporations as ‘keystone actors’ in marine ecosystems. PLoS ONE 10(5): e0127533.

Keystone species have a disproportionate influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Here we analyze whether a keystone-like pattern can be observed in the relationship between transnational corporations and marine ecosystems globally. We show how thirteen corporations control 11-16% of the global marine catch (9-13 million tons) and 19-40% of the largest and most valuable stocks, including species that play importa...

Österblom, H., C. Folke. 2015. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 370: 20130278.

Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and glo...

Möllmann, C., C. Folke, M. Edwards, A. Conversi. 2015. Marine regime shifts around the globe: Theory, drivers and impacts. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 370(1659): 20130260.

This theme issue ‘Marine regime shifts around the globe: theory, drivers and impacts’ has the goal to make a step change towards a more unified understanding of regime shifts in marine ecosystems. Towards this purpose we define ecological regime shifts as ‘dramatic, abrupt changes in the community structure that are persistent in time, encompassing multiple variables, and including key structural species—independently from the...

Folke, C. 2015. Om biosfären, människan, och konsten. Sapir Magazine. 2014-04-16.

Kotschy, K., R. Biggs, T.M. Daw, C. Folke, P.C. West. 2015. Principle 1 Maintain diversity and redundancy. In: Biggs, R. (Oonsie), M. Schlüter, M.L. Schoon (Eds.), Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK pp. 50–79.

As both the societies and the world in which we live face increasingly rapid and turbulent changes, the concept of resilience has become an active and important research area. Reflecting the very latest research, this book provides a critical review of the ways in which resilience of social-ecological systems, and the ecosystem services they provide, can be enhanced. With contributions from leaders in the field, the chapters...

Homer-Dixon, T., B. Walker, R. Biggs, A.-S. Crépin, C. Folke, E.F. Lambin, G.D. Peterson, J. Rockström, M. Scheffer, W. Steffen, M. Troell. 2015. Synchronous failure: The emerging causal architecture of global crisis. Ecology and Society 20(3): 6

Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern’s deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system’s behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kin...