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Our research is regularly published in top-ranked scientific journals. Search for specific publications below
Journal / article | 2020
Ide, T., Fröhlich, C. and Donges, J.F., 2020. The Economic, Political, and Social Implications of Environmental Crises. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(3), pp.E364-E367.
Otto, I.M., Wiedermann, M., Cremades, R., Donges, J.F., Auer, C. and Lucht, W., 2020. Human agency in the anthropocene. Ecological Economics, 167, p.106463.
The human species has been recognized as a new force that has pushed the Earth's system into a new geological epoch referred to as the Anthropocene. This human influence was not conscious, however, but an unintended effect of the consumption of fossil-fuels over the last 150 years. Do we, humans, have the agency to deliberately influence the fate of our species and the planet we inhabit? The rational choice paradigm that domi...
Wunderling, N., Stumpf, B., Krönke, J., Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O.A., Winkelmann, R. and Donges, J.F., 2020. How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro-to macro-scales A3B2 show [editpick]?>. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30(4), p.043129.
In this study, we investigate how specific micro-interaction structures (motifs) affect the occurrence of tipping cascades on networks of stylized tipping elements. We compare the properties of cascades in Erdős–Rényi networks and an exemplary moisture recycling network of the Amazon rainforest. Within these networks, decisive small-scale motifs are the feed forward loop, the secondary feed forward loop, the zero loop, and the...
Krönke, J., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Staal, A., Stumpf, B., Tuinenburg, O.A. and Donges, J.F., 2020. Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks. Physical Review E, 101(4), p.042311.
Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy, and engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to a qualitative change of the system. Many systems with tipping points can be modeled as networks of coupled multistable subsystems, e.g., coupled patches of vegetation, connected lakes, in...
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J.F. and Winkelmann, R., 2020. The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nature, 585(7826), pp.538-544.
More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions1. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes....
Wiedermann, M., Smith, E.K., Heitzig, J., Donges, J. et al. 2020. A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter’s threshold model for social tipping. Sci Rep 10, 11202 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6
Social tipping, where minorities trigger larger populations to engage in collective action, has been suggested as one key aspect in addressing contemporary global challenges. Here, we refine Granovetter’s widely acknowledged theoretical threshold model of collective behavior as a numerical modelling tool for understanding social tipping processes and resolve issues that so far have hindered such applications. Based on real-wor...
Wunderling, N., Willeit, M., Donges, J.F. et al. 2020. Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice. Nat Commun 11, 5177 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using a...
Naidu, P.D., Ganeshram, R., Bollasina, M.A. et al. 2020. Coherent response of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall to Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability over the last 2000 years. Sci Rep 10, 1302 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-58265-3
Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has a direct effect on the livelihoods of two billion people in the Indian-subcontinent. Yet, our understanding of the drivers of multi-decadal variability of the ISM is far from being complete. In this context, large-scale forcing of ISM rainfall variability with multi-decadal resolution over the last two millennia is investigated using new records of sea surface salinity (δ 18 Ow) and s...
Otto, I.M., Donges, J.F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R.J. et.al. 2020. Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Jan 2020, 201900577; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900577117
Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social and technological change within the next few years. Drawing on expert elicitation, an expert workshop, and a review of literature, which provides a comprehensive analysis on this topic, we propose concrete interventions to induce positive social tipping dynamics and a rapid global...
T. Ide, M. Brzoska, J.F. Donges, and C.-F. Schleussner. 2020. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk. Global Environmental Change Volume 62, May 2020, 102063
Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and p...
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