Publications

Kitzmann, N. H., Donges, J. F., Bai, X., Lade, S., Romanczuk, P., and Winkelmann, R.: Contagious Transformations? Inter-City Spreading of Sustainability Innovations., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8976, 2021

In the Anthropocene, socio-economic systems are an integral and highly interconnected part of Earth System. The internal dynamics of these systems will decide whether the Earth can remain in, or return to, a resilient state that resembles the Holocene. Understanding these dynamics thus represents an important aspect of Earth System Science. To prevent the irreversible crossing of Planetary Boundaries, a rapid, global societal...

Smith, K., Wiedermann, M., Donges, J., Heitzig, J., and Winkelmann, R.: Concern and anticipation of future sea-level rise increase potential for social tipping interventions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6081, 2021.

Effective climate change mitigation necessitates swift societal transformations in order to meet the goals of the Paris Accord and to prevent abrupt, irreversible, transitions in the Earth System. Social tipping processes, where relatively small groups trigger sudden qualitative shifts in collective behaviour have been identified as a potential key mechanism instigating these necessary transformations However, the specific pr...

Klose, A. K., Donges, J. F., Feudel, U., and Winkelmann, R.: Cascading tipping behavior of the interacting Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a model of low complexity , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8436, 2021.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have been identified as possible tipping elements of the climate system, transitioning into a qualitatively different state with the crossing of a critical driver threshold. They interact via freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic originating from a melting GIS on the one hand, and via a relative cooling around Greenland with a slowdown...

Tamberg, L., Heitzig, J., and Donges, J.: A modeler's guide to studying the resilience of social-technical-environmental systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11014, 2021.

The concept of `resilience' is increasingly being applied in the study of social-technical-environmental systems in Earth system and sustainability science. However, the diversity of resilience concepts and a certain (sometimes intended) openness of proposed definitions can lead to misunderstandings and impede their application to systems modelling. We propose an approach that aims to ease communication as well as to support ...

Rosier, S. H. R., Reese, R., Donges, J. F., De Rydt, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Winkelmann, R.: The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021.

Abstract. Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main sourceof uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with importantimplications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and futurechanges is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, ortipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustainingretreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ic...

Wunderling, N., Krönke, J., Wohlfarth, V., Kohler, J., Heitzig, J., Staal, A., Willner, S., Winkelmann, R. & Donges, J.F. 2021. Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: The PyCascades package. The European Physical Journal Special Topics 230(14–15), 3163–3176.

Tipping elements occur in various systems such as in socio-economics, ecology and the climate system. In many cases, the individual tipping elements are not independent from each other, but they interact across scales in time and space. To model systems of interacting tipping elements, we here introduce the PyCascades open source software package for studying interacting tipping elements (doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4...

Chu, O.J., Donges, J.F., Robertson, G.B. & Pop-Eleches, G. 2021. The microdynamics of spatial polarization: A model and an application to survey data from Ukraine. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118(50) e2104194118.

Although spatial polarization of attitudes is extremely common around the world, we understand little about the mechanisms through which polarization on divisive issues rises and falls over time. We develop a theory that explains how political shocks can have different effects in different regions of a country depending upon local dynamics generated by the preexisting spatial distribution of attitudes and discussion networks. ...

Bak-Coleman, J.B., Alfano, M., Barfuss, W., Bergstrom, C.T., Centeno, M.A., Couzin, I.D., Donges, J.F., Galesic, M., Gersick, A.S., Jacquet, J., Kao, A.B., Moran, R.E., Romanczuk, P., Rubenstein, D., I., Tombak, K.J., Van Bavel, J.J. & Weber, E.U. 2021. Stewardship of global collective behavior. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118(27), e2025764118.

Collective behavior provides a framework for understanding how the actions and properties of groups emerge from the way individuals generate and share information. In humans, information flows were initially shaped by natural selection yet are increasingly structured by emerging communication technologies. Our larger, more complex social networks now transfer high-fidelity information over vast distances at low cost. The digit...

Klose, A., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Donges, J.. 2021. What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? Environmental Research Letters. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955

Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth’s climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how...

Marwan, N., Donges, J., Donner, R., Eroglu, D.. 2021. Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records. Quaternary Science Reviews. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107245

Identifying and characterising dynamical regime shifts, critical transitions or potential tipping points in palaeoclimate time series is relevant for improving the understanding of often highly nonlinear Earth system dynamics. Beyond linear changes in time series properties such as mean, variance, or trend, these nonlinear regime shifts can manifest as changes in signal predictability, regularity, complexity, or higher-order s...