Publications

Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, Jonathan F. Donges. 2024. Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model. EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924

Social norms are a key socio-cultural driver of human behaviour and have been identified as a central process in potential social tipping dynamics. They play a central role in governance and thus represent a possible intervention point for collective action problems in the Anthropocene, such as natural resource management. A detailed modelling framework for social norm change is needed to capture the dynamics of human societie...

Florian Schunck, Marc Wiedermann, Jobst Heitzig, Jonathan Donges. 2024. A Dynamic Network Model of Societal Complexity and Resilience Inspired by Tainter’s Theory of Collapse. Entropy. https://doi.org/10.3390/e26020098

In recent years, several global events have severely disrupted economies and social structures, undermining confidence in the resilience of modern societies. Examples include the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought unprecedented health challenges and economic disruptions, and the emergence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts that have further strained international relations and economic stability. While empirical evidence on ...

Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, Raf Jansen, Daniel Avila Ortega, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Jonathan F. Donges, Henrik Österblom, Per Olsson, Magnus Nyström, Steve Lade, Thomas Hahn, Carl Folke, Garry Peterson, Anne-Sophie Crepin. 2024. Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability. EGU. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21005

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity and most recently by what some have called a polycrisis. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of Anthropocene trap for humanity. We identify 14 Anthropocene tra...

Jonathan F. Donges, Donovan P. Dennis, Sina Loriani, Boris Sakschewski, Nico Wunderling, Ricarda Winkelmann. 2024. Methodologies for climate tipping points analysis and risk assessments in TIPMIP. EGU. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18039

The Tipping Point Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international initiative that aims to systematically improve our understanding of potential tipping dynamics in different components of the Earth system and to assess the associated uncertainties (www.tipmip.org). By linking and evaluating different models through a systematic framework, TIPMIP aims to fill critical knowledge gaps in Earth system and climate ri...

Marta Tuninetti, Vittorio Giordano, Sara Constantino, Saverio Perri, Juan Rocha, Luana Schwarz, Jonathan F. Donges, Francesco Laio, Simon Levin. 2024. Positive Tipping Points in the Food Systems: the Role of Scales. EGU. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22274

The global food system is at a critical inflection point with rising awareness of the need for change and progress on several fronts, pertaining both human health and the environment. One of the ten critical transitions envisioned by the Food and Land Use Coalitions states that global diets need to converge towards local variations of the “human and planetary healthy diet” which includes more protective foods a diverse protein...

Wolfram Barfuss, Jonathan Donges, Matthias Bethge. 2024. Ecologically-mediated collective action in commons with tipping elements. OSF. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/7pcnm

Collective, cooperative action is critical to sustaining the commons safely away from dangerous tipping elements. Previous work has found a variety of mechanisms for the emergence of cooperation through social interactions. Yet, they cannot always work. Here, we present a theory of ecologically-mediated collective action in commons with tipping elements. We show that even without any direct social interactions, commons with ti...

Vitus Benson, Jonathan F Donges, Niklas Boers, Marina Hirota, Andreas Morr, Arie Staal, Jürgen Vollmer, Nico Wunderling. 2024. Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1e80

The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation data. However, the underlying theory assumes a Gaussian distribution of forest disturbances, which is different from most observed forest stressors such as fires, deforestation, or windthrow...

Johan Rockström, Louis Kotzé, Svetlana Milutinović, Frank Biermann, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan Donges, Jonas Ebbesson, Duncan French, Joyeeta Gupta, Rakhyun Kim, Timothy Lenton, Dominic Lenzi, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Barbara Neumann, Fabian Schuppert, Ricarda Winkelmann, Klaus Bosselmann, Carl Folke, Wolfgang Lucht, David Schlosberg, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen. 2024. The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301531121

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework...

Anja Klein, Krystin Unverzagt, Rossella Alba, Jonathan F. Donges, Tilman Hertz, Tobias Krueger, Emilie Lindkvist, Romina Martin, Jörg Niewöhner, Hannah Prawitz, Maja Schlüter, Luana Schwarz, Nanda Wijermans. 2024. From situated knowledges to situated modelling: a relational framework for simulation modelling. Ecosystems and People. https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2024.2361706

In this paper we extend the use of a relational approach to simulation modelling, a widely used knowledge practice in sustainability science. Among modellers, there is awareness that model results can only be interpreted in view of the assumptions that inform model construction and analysis, but less systematic questioning of those assumptions. Moreover, current methodological discussions tend to focus on integrating social an...

Woi Sok Oh, Wolfram Barfuss, Jonathan Donges, Simon Levin, Daniel Rubenstein. 2024. Independent or interdependent? Migration timing dynamics and their association with external stressors. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4752717/v1

Human migration is one of the defining topics of our time, but the dynamics of when and how often migration events occur are poorly understood. Often, a single, context-unaware model is assumed without empirical evidence. Spatiotemporal dependencies and heterogeneities cannot be explained by such a viewpoint. These gaps produce misunderstanding of migration, leading to imprecise predictions and ineffective responses. To addres...