Publications

Paul D L Ritchie, Norman J Steinert, Jesse F Abrams, Hassan Alkhayuon, Constantin W Arnscheidt, Nils Bochow, Ruth R Chapman, Joseph Clarke, Donovan P Dennis, Jonathan F Donges, Bernardo M Flores, Julius Garbe, Annika Högner, Chris Huntingford, Timothy M Lenton, Johannes Lohmann, Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk, Manjana Milkoreit, Tessa Möller, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Laura Pereira, Courtney Quinn, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Simone M Stuenzi, Didier Swingedouw, Larissa N Van der Laan, Kirsten Zickfeld, Nico Wunderling. 2026. The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad

Due to insufficient emission reductions in recent years, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed the 1.5 °C temperature limit in the late 2020s or 2030s. As a result, several Earth system tipping elements could, at least temporarily, have their tipping points surpassed, posing risks of large-scale and profound structural change. Tipping does not always occur immediately upon crossing such a critical threshold...

Hannah Prawitz, Luana Schwarz, Jonathan F Donges. 2026. Modeling social norms in social-ecological systems: a systematic literature review. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3b55

Social norms play a pivotal role in sustainability transitions by shaping human behavior and influencing responses to challenges such as climate change and natural resource management. They can facilitate or impede collective action. Although simulation models help to explore norm dynamics, modeling approaches remain scattered and lack synthesis specific to social-ecological systems. This systematic review aims to map existing...

Ricarda Winkelmann, Julius Garbe, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht. 2026. Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to amplifying feedbacks which can accelerate ice loss and lead to effectively irreversible retreat. We here analyse the distinct nature and risk of long-term ice loss for each individual drainage basin under different levels of warming. Depending on topographic and climatic conditions, we find that ice loss in some basins unfolds gradually with warming, whereas other basins are characterized ...

John M. Anderies, Max Bechthold, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Nico Wunderling, Wolfram Barfuss, Johan Rockström. 2026. An Information-Based World-Earth System Resilience Index. EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345

In order to address the emerging global polycrisis, it is essential to develop quantitative indicators for estimating resilience of essential bio-geophysical and social drivers of change. Such indicators are required to navigate the Anthropocene and to assess which actions increase the likelihood of achieving a safe and just operating space (SAJOS). In this paper, we propose a novel information-based resilience metric. We defi...

Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Hannah Prawitz, Werner von Bloh, Christoph Müller, Stephen Björn Wirth, Max Bechthold, Dieter Gerten, Jonathan F. Donges. 2025. Supplementary material to "copan:LPJmL: A new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management". EGU Sphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475-supplement

Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Hannah Prawitz, Werner von Bloh, Christoph Müller, Stephen Björn Wirth, Max Bechthold, Dieter Gerten, Jonathan F. Donges. 2025. copan:LPJmL: A new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management. EGU Sphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are established in environmental and agricultural sciences for many purposes, e.g., modelling plant growth and productivity, water and carbon cycles, and biosphere-climate interactions. Nevertheless, DGVMs are still rather limited in terms of simulating mutual interactions between biospheric and human processes. While DGVMs such as the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model have b...

Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, Jonathan F. Donges. 2025. Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025

Social norms are a key socio-cultural driver of human behaviour and have been identified as a central process in potential social tipping dynamics. They play a central role in governance and thus represent a possible intervention point for collective action problems in the Anthropocene, such as natural resource management. A detailed modelling framework for social norm change is needed to capture the dynamics of human societie...

Ajay Gambhir, Michael J. Albert, Sylvanus S. P. Doe, Jonathan F. Donges, Nadim Farajalla, Leandro L. Giatti, Haripriya Gundimeda, Sarah Hendel-Blackford, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Daniel Hoyer, Sumaya Adan, David Jacome-Polit, Luke Kemp, David Korowicz, Zora Kovacic, Jan Kwakkel, Laurie Laybourn, Robert Lempert, Ayan Mahamoud, Tom H. Oliver, Ivana E. Pavkova, Joseph Ponnoly, Vishwas Satgar, Megan Shipman, Jana Sillmann, Nick Silver, Samuel Stevenson, Ruth Richardson. 2025. A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62029-w

Human societies and ecological systems face increasingly severe risks, stemming from crossing planetary boundaries, worsening inequality, rising geo-political tensions, and new technologies. In an interconnected world, these risks can exacerbate each-other, creating systemic risks, which must be thoroughly assessed and responded to. Recent years have seen the emergence of analytical frameworks designed specifically for, or app...

Johan Rockström, Peter Schlosser, Avit K. Bhowmik, Roger Cremades, Jonathan F. Donges, James G. Dyke, Kristie L. Ebi, Adrian Heilemann, Daniela Jacob, Paula Mirazo, Denise Moreno Ramírez, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Ilona M. Otto, Franz Prettenthaler, Janet Ranganathan, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Rachel Warren, Henry C. Wu. 2025. Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101527

Humanity faces its ultimate challenge due to its failure so far in addressing the escalating risks, which are pushing the world into a deepening crisis. We have to rapidly adopt new pathways that reduce negative impacts and optimize regeneration. Today, we exceed our planet’s capacity to sustain life, depriving billions of basic needs amid rising conflict. Yet, with collective will, we can bridge the gap between knowledge and ...

Thomas Elliot, Jonathan Donges, Massimo Pizzol, Ilona Otto. 2025. Manifesting tipping points in pro-environmental behaviour for climate change mitigation. EGU. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10788

Achieving ambitious climate change targets, such as limiting global warming to 1.5°C, requires both political and social determination. Bottom-up pro-environmentalist behaviours can facilitate crossing social tipping points (STPs), resulting in new social norms with lower impact on global warming. While the passing of STPs has been described qualitatively, it remains poorly understood how the climate benefits of this phenomeno...