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Uusitalo, L., Blenckner, T., Puntila-Dodd, R., Skyttä, A., Jernberg, S., Voss, R., Müller-Karulis, B., Tomczak, M.T., Möllmann, C. & Peltonen, H. 2021. Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth. Science of The Total Environment doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150450
Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network- based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body of...
Belgrano, A., Novaglio, C., Svedang, H., Villasante, S., Melian, C.J., Blenckner, T., Bergstrom, U., Bryhn, A., Bergstrom, L., Bartolino, V., Skold, M., Tomczak, M., Wikstrom, S.A., Hansen, A.S., Linke, S., Emmerson, R., Morf, A. & Tonnesson, K. 2021. Mapping and Evaluating Marine Protected Areas and Ecosystem Services: A Transdisciplinary Delphi Forecasting Process Framework. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 9, 652492.
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important tool for management and conservation and play an increasingly recognised role in societal and human well-being. However, the assessment of MPAs often lacks a simultaneous consideration of ecological and socio-economic outcomes, and this can lead to misconceptions on the effectiveness of MPAs. In this perspective, we present a transdisciplinary approach based on the Delphi method f...
Ammar, Y., Voss, R., Niiranen, S. & Blenckner, T. 2021. Quantifying socio-economic novelty in fisheries social-ecological systems. Fish and Fisheries doi.org/10.1111/faf.12626
Socio-economic development has shaped fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) worldwide across different scales. No work has yet undertaken how this development led to novel, not experienced before, systems structure in marine SES. Here, we quantify socio-economic novelty as the degree of dissimilarity relative to a specific spatiotemporal baseline in the Baltic Sea fisheries SES between 1975 and 2015. We used catch by "gear...
Tomczak, M.T., Müller‐Karulis, B., Blenckner, T., Ehrnsten, E., Eero, M., Gustafsson, B., Norkko, A., Otto, S.A., Timmermann, K. & Humborg, C. 2021. Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century: The Central Baltic Sea case. Limnology and Oceanography doi.org/10.1002/lno.11975
The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20 th century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and ident...
Cosens, B., Ruhl, J., Soininen, N., Gunderson, L., Belinskij, A., Blenckner, T., Camacho, A., Chaffin, B., Craig, R., Doremus, H., Glicksman, R., Heiskanen, A., Larson, R., Similä, J.. 2021. Governing complexity: Integrating science, governance, and law to manage accelerating change in the globalized commons. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2102798118
The speed and uncertainty of environmental change in the Anthropocene challenge the capacity of coevolving social–ecological–technological systems (SETs) to adapt or transform to these changes. Formal government and legal structures further constrain the adaptive capacity of our SETs. However, new, self-organized forms of adaptive governance are emerging at multiple scales in natural resource-based SETs. Adaptive governance in...
Belgrano, A., Novaglio, C., Svedäng, H., Villasante, S., Melián, C., Blenckner, T., Bergström, U., Bryhn, A., Bergström, L., Bartolino, V., Sköld, M., Tomczak, M., Wikström, S., Hansen, A., Linke, S., Emmerson, R., Morf, A., Tönnesson, K.. 2021. Mapping and Evaluating Marine Protected Areas and Ecosystem Services: A Transdisciplinary Delphi Forecasting Process Framework. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.652492
Blenckner, T., Moellmann, C., Lowndes, J.S., Griffiths, J.R., Campbell, E., De Cervo, A., Belgrano, A., Bostroem, C., Fleming, V., Frazier, M., Neuenfeldt, S., Niiranen, S., Nilsson, A., Ojaveer, H., Olsson, J., Palmloev, C.S., Quaas, M., Rickels, W., Sobek, A., Viitasalo, M., Wikstroem, S.A. & Halpern, B.S. 2021. The Baltic Health Index (BHI): Assessing the social-ecological status of the Baltic Sea. People and Nature 3(2), 359–375.
Improving the health of coastal and open sea marine ecosystems represents a substantial challenge for sustainable marine resource management, since it requires balancing human benefits and impacts on the ocean. This challenge is often exacerbated by incomplete knowledge and lack of tools that measure ocean and coastal ecosystem health in a way that allows consistent monitoring of progress towards predefined management targets....
Heinze, C., Blenckner, T., Martins, H., Rusiecka, D., Döscher, R., Gehlen, M., Gruber, N., Holland, E., Hov, Ø., Joos, F., Matthews, J., Rødven, R., Wilson, S.. 2021. The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008478118
Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean’s environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathwa...
Blenckner, T., Ammar, Y., Müller-Karulis, B., Niiranen, S., Arneborg, L., Li, Q.. 2021. The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.745722
Future climate biogeochemical projections indicate large changes in the ocean with environmental conditions not experienced at present referred to as novel, or may even disappear. These climate-induced changes will most likely affect species distribution via changes in growth, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. However, the future risk of novel and disappearing environmental conditions in the ocean is po...
Ammar, Y., Niiranen, S., Otto, S.A., Möllmann, C., Finsinger, W. and Blenckner, T., 2021. The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case. Global change biology, 27(7), pp.1485-1499
Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosys...
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