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Belgrano, A., Novaglio, C., Svedäng, H., Villasante, S., Melián, C., Blenckner, T., Bergström, U., Bryhn, A., Bergström, L., Bartolino, V., Sköld, M., Tomczak, M., Wikström, S., Hansen, A., Linke, S., Emmerson, R., Morf, A., Tönnesson, K.. 2021. Mapping and Evaluating Marine Protected Areas and Ecosystem Services: A Transdisciplinary Delphi Forecasting Process Framework. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.652492
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important tool for management and conservation and play an increasingly recognised role in societal and human well-being. However, the assessment of MPAs often lacks a simultaneous consideration of ecological and socio-economic outcomes, and this can lead to misconceptions on the effectiveness of MPAs. In this perspective, we present a transdisciplinary approach based on the Delphi method f...
Blenckner, T., Möllmann, C., Stewart Lowndes, J., Griffiths, J., Campbell, E., De Cervo, A., Belgrano, A., Boström, C., Fleming, V., Frazier, M., Neuenfeldt, S., Niiranen, S., Nilsson, A., Ojaveer, H., Olsson, J., Palmlöv, C., Quaas, M., Rickels, W., Sobek, A., Viitasalo, M., Wikström, S., Halpern, B.. 2021. The Baltic Health Index (BHI): Assessing the social–ecological status of the Baltic Sea. People and Nature. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10178
Improving the health of coastal and open sea marine ecosystems represents a substantial challenge for sustainable marine resource management, since it requires balancing human benefits and impacts on the ocean. This challenge is often exacerbated by incomplete knowledge and lack of tools that measure ocean and coastal ecosystem health in a way that allows consistent monitoring of progress towards predefined management targets....
Heinze, C., Blenckner, T., Martins, H., Rusiecka, D., Döscher, R., Gehlen, M., Gruber, N., Holland, E., Hov, Ø., Joos, F., Matthews, J., Rødven, R., Wilson, S.. 2021. The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008478118
Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean’s environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathwa...
Rockström, J., Beringer, T., Hole, D., Griscom, B., Mascia, M., Folke, C., Creutzig, F.. 2021. Opinion: We need biosphere stewardship that protects carbon sinks and builds resilience. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115218118
Earth’s biosphere, its extraordinary and complex web of species and ecosystems on land and in the oceans, drives the life-sustaining cycles of water and other materials that enable all life on Earth to thrive. The biosphere is also a principal driver of immense negative feedback loops in the Earth system that stabilize atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thereby global climate—including carbon sequestration by vegetation, so...
Österblom, H., Paasche, Ø. 2021. Earth altruism. One Earth, Vol. 4, Issue 10, P1386-1397. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.003
Our civilization is facing substantial risks and a growing realization of how climatological and ecological tipping points can fundamentally change the premises for life. This rapidly emerging reality compels a shift in the scope of concern for humans. Even so, it remains unclear whether our ability to learn, collaborate, and address complex problems is compatible with this endemic crisis. Here, we address this existential dil...
Hahn, T., Eggers, J., Subramanian, N., Caicoya, A.T., et.al. 2021. Specified resilience value of alternative forest management adaptations to storms. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, https://doi.org/10.1080/02827581.2021.1988140
Resilient ecosystems provide natural insurance value, or resilience value, to the landowner and to society at large. In response to global calls for integrating biodiversity in sector policy and planning, we analysed the specified resilience value by simulating three storm regimes and five management scenarios: Business As Usual/BAU (spruce-dominance), Spruce Monoculture, More Broadleaves, Continuous Cover Forestry (CCF), and ...
Blenckner, T., Ammar, Y., Müller-Karulis, B., Niiranen, S., Arneborg, L., Li, Q.. 2021. The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.745722
Future climate biogeochemical projections indicate large changes in the ocean with environmental conditions not experienced at present referred to as novel, or may even disappear. These climate-induced changes will most likely affect species distribution via changes in growth, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. However, the future risk of novel and disappearing environmental conditions in the ocean is po...
Brockhaus, M., Di Gregorio, M., Djoudi, H., Moeliono, M., Pham, T., Wong, G.. 2021. The forest frontier in the Global South: Climate change policies and the promise of development and equity. Ambio. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01602-1
Halting forest loss and achieving sustainable development in an equitable manner require state, non-state actors, and entire societies in the Global North and South to tackle deeply established patterns of inequality and power relations embedded in forest frontiers. Forest and climate governance in the Global South can provide an avenue for the transformational change needed—yet, does it? We analyse the politics and power in ...
Frantzeskaki, N., McPhearson, T.. 2021. Mainstream Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Climate Resilience. BioScience. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biab105
Global urbanization over the last century has concentrated people, infrastructure, and economic activity in cities, pushing them to the front lines of damaging impacts of climate change and other social and economic shocks, including COVID-19. Extreme natural disasters in the last 3 years, such as Typhoon Mangkhut (in 2018) in the Philippines, Hurricane Maria (in 2017) and Florence (in 2018) in the United States, the reoccurri...
Kohler, J., Wunderling, N., Donges, J., Vollmer, J.. 2021. Complex networks of interacting stochastic tipping elements: Cooperativity of phase separation in the large-system limit. Physical Review E. http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/physreve.104.044301
Tipping elements in the Earth system have received increased scientific attention over recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element undergoes a drastic shift in its state upon an additional small parameter change when close to its tipping point. Recently, the focus of research broadened towards emergent behavior in net...
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