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Journal / article
Silva Bezerra, F. G., Mann de Toledo, P., von Randow, C., Aguiar, A. P. et al. 2022. Spatio-temporal analysis of dynamics and future scenarios of anthropic pressure on biomes in Brazil. Ecological Indicators. https://doi-org.ezproxy.its.uu.se/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108749
Anthropogenic transformations, which have become intensified by land use and land cover changes and industrialization, have contributed to increased anthropogenic pressure on biodiversity. These disturbances contribute toward fragmentating habitats at different scales and putting species at risk, in addition to compromising the main biogeochemical cycles. To better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of anthropogenic pressu...
Chaigneau, T. and Schill, C. 2022. Environmental behaviours within ecological and social limits: integrating well-being with behavioural research for sustainability. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101201
There is a pressing need to reduce inequalities and bring everyone above a foundational level of well-being whilst simultaneously staying within planetary boundaries. Yet, there is a limited understanding of how moving into and maintaining such 'safe and just' spaces affect environmental behaviours. To fill this gap, we argue for integrating human well-being and behaviour research. In particular, to 1) implement social thresho...
Jaramillo, F., Piemontese, L., Berghuijs, W. R., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Greve, P., Wang, Z. 2022. Fewer basins will follow their Budyko curves under global warming and fossil-fueled development. Water Resources Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031825
The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (i.e., potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation's water and energy limits. A basin's movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and helps identify the main drivers of change. On the one hand, long-term aridity changes dr...
Virkki, V., Alanärä, E., Porkka, M., Ahopelto, L., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Flörke, M., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Müller Schmied, H., Wanders, N., and Kummu, M. 2022. Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes. Hydrology and Earth Systems Science. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022
Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding the riverine ecosystems, but at the global scale, the assessment of EFs is associated with high uncertainty related to the hydrological data and EF methods employed. Here, we present a novel, in-depth global EF as...
Wunderling, N., Staal, A., Sakschewski, B., Hirota, M., Tuinenburg, O., Donges, J., Barbosa, H., Winkelmann, R. 2022. Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120777119
Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme dev...
Journal / article
Donges, J., Lucht, W., Cornell, S., Heitzig, J., Barfuss, W., Lade, S., Schlüter, M.. 2021. Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops. Earth System Dynamics. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021
In the Anthropocene, the social dynamics of human societies have become critical to understanding planetary-scale Earth system dynamics. The conceptual foundations of Earth system modelling have externalised social processes in ways that now hinder progress in understanding Earth resilience and informing governance of global environmental change.New approaches to global modelling of the human World are needed to address these ...
Brovkin, V., Brook, E., Williams, J., Bathiany, S., Lenton, T., Barton, M., DeConto, R., Donges, J., Ganopolski, A., McManus, J., Praetorius, S., de Vernal, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Cheng, H., Claussen, M., Crucifix, M., Gallopín, G., Iglesias, V., Kaufman, D., Kleinen, T., Lambert, F., van der Leeuw, S., Liddy, H., Loutre, M., McGee, D., Rehfeld, K., Rhodes, R., Seddon, A., Trauth, M., Vanderveken, L., Yu, Z.. 2021. Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system. Nature Geoscience. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance ...
Wunderling, N., Donges, J., Kurths, J., Winkelmann, R.. 2021. Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming. Earth System Dynamics. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021
With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be ...
Pihl, E., Alfredsson, E., Bengtsson, M., Bowen, K., Cástan Broto, V., Chou, K., et.al. 2021. Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan. Global Sustainability, 4, E5. doi:10.1017/sus.2021.2
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. ...
Crona, B., Folke, C. & Galaz, V. 2021. The Anthropocene reality of financial risk. One Earth 4(5), 618–628.
Globally, financial services are well positioned to contribute to the transformation needed for sustainable futures and will be critical for supporting corporate activities that regenerate and promote biosphere resilience as a key strategy to confront the new risk landscape of the Anthropocene. While current financial risk frameworks focus primarily on financial materiality and risks to the financial sector, failure to accoun...
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