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Broek, E., Michel, D., Eklöw, K., Remling, E., Faller, J., Smith, E., Gadnert, A., Smith, D., Hegazi, F., Staudenmann, J.A., Cóbar, J. F. A., Kim, K., Dabelko, G., Barnhoorn, A., Krampe, F., Alfaro, E.S., Bell, N., McAllister, C., de Coning, C., Eberlein, A., Maalim, H., Ndiloseh, M., Pattison, C., Bell-Moran, D., Black, R. and Busby, J. 2022. Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk. Sipri, Stockholm
The environmental crisis is increasing risks to security and peace worldwide, notably in countries that are already fragile. Indicators of insecurity such as the number of conflicts, the number of hungry people and military expenditure are rising; so are indicators of environmental decline, climate change, biodiversity, pollution and other areas. In combination, the security and environmental crises are creating compound, casc...
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Shepon, A., Makov, T., Hamilton, H.A., Müller, D.B., Gephart, J.A., Henriksson, P.J.G., Troell, M., Golden, C.D. 2021. Sustainable optimization of global aquatic omega-3 supply chain could substantially narrow the nutrient gap. Resources, Conservation and Recycling (181)
Omega-3 EPA and DHA fatty acids are vital for human health, but current human nutritional requirements are greater than supply. This nutrient gap is poised to increase as demand increases and the abundance of aquatic foods and the amount of omega-3 they contain may dwindle due to climate change and overfishing. Identifying and mitigating loss and inefficiencies across the global aquatic supply chain has great potential for nar...
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Gaupp, F., Ruggeri Laderchi, C., Lotze-Campen, H., DeClerck, F., Bodirsky, B.L., Lowder, S., Popp, A., Kanbur, R., Edenhofer, O., Nugent, R., Fanzo, J., Dietz, S., Nordhagen, S. & Fan, S. 2021. Food system development pathways for healthy, nature-positive and inclusive food systems. Nature Food 2(12), 928–934.
Sustainable food systems require the integration of and alignment between recommendations for food and land use practices, as well as an understanding of the political economy context and identification of entry points for change. We propose a food systems transformation framework that takes these elements into account and links long-term goals with short-term measures and policies, ultimately guiding the decomposition of tran...
Queiroz, C., Norstrom, A.V., Downing, A., Harmackova, Z.V., De Coning, C., Adams, V., Bakarr, M., Baedeker, T., Chitate, A., Gaffney, O., Gordon, L., Hainzelin, E., Howlett, D., Krampe, F., Loboguerrero, A.M., Nel, D., Okollet, C., Rebermark, M., Rockström, J., Smith, M., Wabbes-Candotti, S. & Matthews, N. 2021. Investment in resilient food systems in the most vulnerable and fragile regions is critical. Nature Food 2(8), 546–551.
Reversing the alarming trend of rising food insecurity requires transformations towards just, sustainable and healthy food systems with an explicit focus on the most vulnerable and fragile regions. Global food insecurity fell for decades, but it is steadily rising again 1 . A primary driver of this alarming trend is the double burden of climate shocks and violent conflict in areas that are already food insecure. The recent ...
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Kornhuber, K., Coumou, D., Vogel, E., Lesk, C., Donges, J.F., Lehmann, J. and Horton, R.M., 2020. Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions. Nature Climate Change, 10(1), pp.48-53.
In an interconnected world, simultaneous extreme weather events in distant regions could potentially impose high-end risks for societies. In the mid-latitudes, circumglobal Rossby waves are associated with a strongly meandering jet stream and might cause simultaneous heatwaves and floods across the northern hemisphere. For example, in the summer of 2018, several heat and rainfall extremes occurred near-simultaneously. Here we...
Heslin, A., Puma, M.J., Marchand, P., Carr, J.A., Dell'Angelo, J., D'Odorico, P., Gephart, J.A., Kummu, M., Porkka, M., Rulli, M.C. and Seekell, D.A., 2020. Simulating the cascading effects of an extreme agricultural production shock: global implications of a contemporary US Dust Bowl event. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 4, p.26.
Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production ...
Frei, B., Queiroz, C., Chaplin-Kramer, B., Andersson, E., Renard, D., Rhemtulla, J.M. and Bennett, E.M., 2020. A brighter future: Complementary goals of diversity and multifunctionality to build resilient agricultural landscapes. Global Food Security, 26, p.100407.
Humanity places a heavy burden on agricultural landscapes, demanding plentiful food, multiple ecosystem functions, and biodiversity conservation. We quantified areas growing ‘brighter’ and ‘darker’ (i.e., better or worse than expected based on extrinsic constraints) for multifunctionality of ecosystem services (ES) over time across a dynamic agricultural landscape. To explore how areas changing in ES multifunctionality, we li...
Kummu, M., Kinnunen, P., Lehikoinen, E., Porkka, M., Queiroz, C., Röös, E., Troell, M., Weil. C. 2020. Interplay of trade and food system resilience: Gains on supply diversity over time at the cost of trade independency. Global Food Security, Volume 24, March 2020, 100360
Rapidly increasing international food trade has drastically altered the global food system over the past decades. Using national scale indicators, we assess two of the resilience principles that directly reflect the effects of global trade on food systems – namely, maintaining diversity and redundancy, and managing connectivity. We perform our analysis for four nutritional components: dietary energy, proteins, fat, and quanti...
Pereira, L., Drimie, S., Maciejewski, K., Bon Tonissen, P., Biggs. R. 2020. Food System Transformation: Integrating a Political–Economy and Social–Ecological Approach to Regime Shifts. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(4), 1313; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041313
Sustainably achieving the goal of global food security is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The current food system is failing to meet the needs of people, and at the same time, is having far-reaching impacts on the environment and undermining human well-being in other important ways. It is increasingly apparent that a deep transformation in the way we produce and consume food is needed in order to ensure a m...
T. Ide, M. Brzoska, J.F. Donges, and C.-F. Schleussner. 2020. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk. Global Environmental Change Volume 62, May 2020, 102063
Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and p...
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