Model simulations show that neither reduced catches alone, nor higher reproduction, could explain the increase. Each factor only explained 25 percent of the total increase. Synergies between both factors were necessary for the current increase in the Baltic Sea cod stock.

- This analysis clearly illustrates the importance of management actions but it also underlines the non-linear dynamics in nature and the challenges involved in ecosystem management, says Henrik Österblom at Baltic Nest Institute and one of the authors behind the study.
 
Does this mean that the Baltic cod stock is safe now?
- A similar increase of the cod stock in the early 1990´s was rapidly nullified by unsustainable catches. But we are, now in a window of opportunity to re-build the cod stock. If only the management plan decided last year is followed and illegal catches are controlled, the future of the Baltic cod looks better than it has for a long time, according to Olle Hjerne, marine ecologist at Stockholm University.
 
What will happen if the environmental conditions change?
- As climate change continues, environmental conditions for cod will be affected.  Research on cod in other seas has underlined the importance of high stock levels for its capacity to cope with environmental change. Climate change will thus underline the importance of adaptive management, according to Thorsten Blenckner, Baltic Nest Institute.

The study is a work in progress at Stockholm University (the Department of Systems Ecology, the Baltic Nest Institute at Stockholm Resilience Centre).

For more information, please contact:
Dr. Olle Hjerne: olle@ecology.su.se or +46 730 979 090
Dr. Henrik Österblom: Henrik.osterblom@stockholmresilience.su.se +46 73 707 88 16
Dr. Thorsten Blenckner: tblen@mbox.su.se or +46 73 707 85 79

Press contact
Ellika Hermansson Török : +46 73 707 85 47, ellika@stockholmresilience.su.se