A holistic view of marine regime shifts

Author(s): Conversi, A., V. Dakos, A. Gårdmark, S. Ling, C. Folke, P.J. Mumby, C. Greene, M. Edwards, T. Blenckner, M. Casini, A. Pershing, C. Möllmann
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 370: 20130279
Year: 2015
Type: Journal / article
Theme affiliation: Complex Adaptive Systems, Marine
Link to centre authors: Blenckner, Thorsten, Folke, Carl
Full reference: Conversi, A., V. Dakos, A. Gårdmark, S. Ling, C. Folke, P.J. Mumby, C. Greene, M. Edwards, T. Blenckner, M. Casini, A. Pershing, C. Möllmann. 2015. A holistic view of marine regime shifts. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 370: 20130279

Summary

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but
also for developing marine management that assures the provision of
ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well
developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms
and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems.

Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes.

Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types.

We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime
shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with
endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This
framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these
stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually
enable the crossing of ecological thresholds.

Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine
ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

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